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Peaks and valleys: Price discovery in experimental asset markets with non-monotonic fundamentals

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Author Info

  • Charles N. Noussair
  • Owen Powell

Abstract

Purpose – This paper aims to study how the trajectory of fundamental values affects price discovery in an experimental asset market. Design/methodology/approach – An experiment is conducted with two treatments, in which the time path of fundamentals differs between treatments. In the peak treatment, fundamentals first rise and then fall, while in the valley treatment fundamentals first fall and then recover. The experiment allows market prices to be compared to fundamental values. Findings – Both peak and valley treatments experience bubbles when traders are inexperienced. However, price discovery is more rapid and complete in the peak than in the valley treatment. In the peak treatment, prices track the value, the direction of the trend, and changes in trend, more closely than in the valley treatment. Originality/value – This paper documents the first experimental results regarding pricing behavior in markets with non-monotonic fundamentals. It creates an environment (the valley treatment) in which convergence to close to fundamentals does not occur even with repetition of the market under identical conditions. The results demonstrate that the likelihood that an asset market tracks fundamentals depends on the time path of fundamentals.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 37 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 152-180

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Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:37:y:2010:i:2:p:152-180

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Related research

Keywords: Asset management; Asset valuation; Assets; Financial markets;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cary Deck & David Porter & Vernon L. Smith, 2011. "Double Bubbles in Assets Markets with Multiple Generations," Working Papers 11-10, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  2. Giusti, Giovanni & Jiang, Janet Hua & Xu, Yiping, 2012. "Eliminating Laboratory Asset Bubbles by Paying Interest on Cash," MPRA Paper 37321, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra, 2012. "Individual Expectations, Limited Rationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-016/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Charles Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2014. "Cash Inflows and Bubbles in Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values," Working Papers in Economics 14/03, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  5. Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra, 2012. "Individual Expectations, Limited Rationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-016/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Giovanni Giusti & Janet Hua Jiang & Yiping Xu, 2014. "Interest on Cash, Fundamental Value Process and Bubble Formation on Experimental Asset Markets," Working Papers 14-18, Bank of Canada.
  7. Stefan Palan, 2013. "A Review of Research into Smith, Suchanek and Williams Markets," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2013-04, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.

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