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Southern African Economic Integration: Evidence from an Augmented Gravity Model

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Author Info
Warin, Thierry () (Middlebury College)
Wunnava, Phanindra V. () (Middlebury College)
Tengia, Optat () (Brown University)
Wandschneider, Kirsten () (Occidental College)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the feasibility of creating a common-currency union consisting of 16 countries in Southern Africa. We estimate an augmented-gravity model that includes public deficit, public debt, public expenditure, inflation, and the foreign reserves position. We also integrate Africa-specific variables such as existing economic blocs in the region, colonial heritage, and the convergence of living standards. Our analysis shows that the prospect for further integration in Southern Africa is promising, but many challenges still persist. The existing economic blocs can provide a first stepping stone to a larger currency union, but countries continuously have to cultivate good governance and fiscal discipline.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 4316.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4316

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Related research
Keywords: optimum currency area; gravity model; Southern African integration; endogenous optimum currency area theory;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F1 - International Economics - - Trade
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
O24 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Is East Africa an Optimum Currency Area?," Working Papers in Economics 41, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thierry Warin, 2005. "The Hidden Structural Features of the Fiscal Rule: A European Saga," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 29-38, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cobham, David & Robson, Peter, 1994. "Monetary integration in Africa: A deliberately European perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 285-299, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Baltagi, Badi H. & Wu, Ping X., 1999. "Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions With Ar(1) Disturbances," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 814-823, December. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bayoumi, Tamim & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1997. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 412-44, October.
    Other versions:
  8. Guillaume, Dominique M. & Stasavage, David, 2000. "Improving Policy Credibility: Is There a Case for African Monetary Unions?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1391-1407, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bhargava, A & Franzini, L & Narendranathan, W, 1982. "Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 533-49, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Padamja Khandelwal, 2004. "COMESA and SADC: Prospects and Challenges for Regional Trade Integration," IMF Working Papers 04/227, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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