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Modelling Return and Volatility of Oil Price using Dual Long Memory Models

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Author Info

  • Heni BOUBAKER
  • Nadia SGHAIER

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic properties of both return and volatility of the oil price. The analysis is carried out using a set of double long memory specifications incorporating several features such as long range dependence, asymmetry in conditional variances and time varying correlations. The in-sample diagnostic tests as well as the out-of-sample forecasting results show the performance of the ARFIMA-FIAPARCH model.

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File URL: http://www.ipag.fr/wp-content/uploads/recherche/WP/IPAG_WP_2014_283.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Research, Ipag Business School in its series Working Papers with number 2014-283.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: 29 Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-283

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Keywords: Oil price; return; volatility; dual long memory.;

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References

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  1. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  2. Richard T. Baillie & Young Wook Han & Tae-Go Kwon, 2002. "Further Long Memory Properties of Inflationary Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 496-510, January.
  3. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
  4. Davidson, James, 2004. "Moment and Memory Properties of Linear Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models, and a New Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 16-29, January.
  5. Karanasos, M. & Sekioua, S.H. & Zeng, N., 2006. "On the order of integration of monthly US ex-ante and ex-post real interest rates: New evidence from over a century of data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-169, February.
  6. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  7. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  8. Y. K. Tse, 1998. "The conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 49-55.
  9. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  10. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
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Cited by:
  1. Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi & Frédéric Teulon & Slim Chouachi, 2014. "Evolution of Crude Oil Prices and Economic Growth: The case of OPEC Countries," Working Papers 2014-421, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  2. Derek Bunn & Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices," Working Papers 2014-414, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  3. Khaled Guesmi & Ilyes Abid & Olfa Kaabia, 2014. "Conditional Correlations and Volatility Spillovers between Crude Oil and Oil- exporting and importing countries," Working Papers 2014-334, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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