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¿Es Efectiva la Política Fiscal? Evidencia para una Economía Emergente

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Author Info
Rodrigo Cerda () (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)
Hermann González
Luis Felipe Lagos () (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

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Abstract

Este trabajo evalúa los impactos de la política fiscal sobre la evolución de la actividad económica (PIB) en Chile. Los resultados del análisis dinámico con la metodología de VAR estructural indican efectos no keynesianos de la política fiscal. Un aumento (reducción) en el gasto fiscal puede tener efectos recesivos (expansivos) si se asocia con mayores (menores) impuestos futuros; un aumento (disminución) de impuestos puede ser expansivo (recesivo) si permite anticipar menores (mayores) impuestos de manera permanente en el futuro. Los resultados empíricos indican que un aumento del gasto fiscal tiene efectos negativos sobre el PIB en el corto plazo, que se deshacen después de 24 trimestres. El aumento de impuestos tiene inicialmente un efecto positivo sobre el producto para generar posteriormente un efecto negativo sobre este. La dinámica, en este último caso, está relacionada inicialmente con un superávit fiscal que se revierte, produciéndose un déficit fiscal después de 12 trimestres. La expansión del PIB coincide con el superávit fiscal, mientras que la caída en el PIB coincide con el déficit fiscal.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 249.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published as "Efectos Dinámicos de la Política Fiscal", Cuadernos de Economía, Vol. 42, Nº 125, pp. 63-77, 2005.
Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:249

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 168, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-8.

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