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A Theory of Minsky Super-Cycles and Financial Crises

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Author Info
Thomas I. Palley () (Economics for Democratic & Open Societies, Washington DC)
Abstract

This paper argues that Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis weaves together a medium term Keynesian approach to the business cycles in the spirit of Samuelson (1936) and Hicks (1950) with long cycle thinking of economists such as Schumpeter (1939) and Kondratieff. Post Keynesians have devoted considerable attention to the medium term dimension of Minsky's thinking. The current paper concentrates on the long swing dimension and introduces the idea of "Minsky super-cycles." It is the supercycle that ultimately permits financial crisis. Whereas financially driven business cycles occur every decade, financial crises occur over longer durations reflecting the longer phase of the super-cycle.

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Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 05-2009.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:5-2009

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Keywords: Minsky; business cycles; financial instability hypothesis;

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  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Davidson, Paul, 1991. "Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 129-43, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  4. L. Randall Wray, 2008. "Financial Markets Meltdown: What Can We Learn from Minsky," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_94, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ferri, Piero & Minsky, Hyman P., 1992. "Market processes and thwarting systems," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 79-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Foley, Duncan K., 1987. "Liquidity-profit rate cycles in a capitalist economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 363-376, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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