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Mask Mandates Save Lives

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  • Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen
  • Rui Mano

Abstract

We quantify the effect of mask mandates in the United States. Our regression discontinuity design exploits county-level variation in COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths across the border between states with and without mandates. We find a significant and substantial effect—mask mandates reduced new weekly COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by 55, 11 and 0.7 per 100,000 inhabitants on average. Crucially, we find that the effect of mask mandates depends on the attitudes toward mask wearing at the county level, with larger effects in counties more positively inclined towards mask wearing. Our results imply that mandates saved 87,000 lives through December 19, 2020, while a nationwide mandate could have saved 58,000 additional lives. These large effects suggest that mask mandates are a crucial tool to counter pandemics, particularly if accepted widely by the population. Our results are thus also relevant for countries who will not be able to immunize large swaths of their population in the short term.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Rui Mano, 2021. "Mask Mandates Save Lives," IMF Working Papers 2021/205, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/205
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    6. Austin L. Wright & Geet Chawla & Luke Chen & Anthony Farmer, 2020. "Tracking Mask Mandates during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2020-104, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
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    8. Karaivanov, Alexander & Lu, Shih En & Shigeoka, Hitoshi & Chen, Cong & Pamplona, Stephanie, 2021. "Face masks, public policies and slowing the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Herby, Jonas & Jonung, Lars & Hanke, Steve, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on Covid-19 Mortality - II," MPRA Paper 113732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Non-pharmaceutical interventions and mortality in U.S. cities during the great influenza pandemic, 1918–1919," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 93-106.
    3. Hurley, James & Walker, Daniel, 2021. "Did the Covid-19 local lockdowns reduce business activity? Evidence from UK SMEs," Bank of England working papers 943, Bank of England.
    4. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Vaccination rates and COVID outcomes across U.S. states," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; public health measures; face masks; regression discontinuity.; mask mandate; discontinuity design; nationwide mandate; mask border; mask wearing; COVID-19; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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