IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2016-159.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation and the Black Market Exchange Rate in a Repressed Market: A Model of Venezuela

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Valerie Cerra

Abstract

This paper presents a stylized general equilibrium model of the Venezuelan economy. The model explains how the recent sharp fall in oil revenue combines with foreign exchange rationing to produce a steep rise in inflation. Counterintuitively, a devaluation of the official exchange rate could temporarily reduce inflation. The model also explains how the hyper-depreciation of the black market exchange rate reflects prices in the most distorted goods markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Valerie Cerra, 2016. "Inflation and the Black Market Exchange Rate in a Repressed Market: A Model of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 2016/159, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/159
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44164
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-625, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francisco, Rodriguez & Patrick, Imam, 2022. "Political Growth Collapses," MPRA Paper 113670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Santiago Mosquera & Federico Sturzenegger, 2021. "Cepo para principantes," Working Papers 151, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Apr 2021.
    3. Gilberto González-Parra & Benito Chen-Charpentier & Abraham J. Arenas & Miguel Díaz-Rodríguez, 2022. "Mathematical Modeling of Physical Capital Diffusion Using a Spatial Solow Model: Application to Smuggling in Venezuela," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    4. García, Carlos J. & Mejía, Jesisbé, 2018. "Macroeconomic stabilization of primary commodities price cycles in developing economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 1050-1066.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    2. Papazoglou, Christos & Pentecost, Eric J., 2004. "The dynamic adjustment of a transition economy in the early stages of transformation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 547-561, September.
    3. Santiago Mosquera & Federico Sturzenegger, 2021. "Cepo para principantes," Working Papers 151, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Apr 2021.
    4. Leonardo Bartolini & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 2001. "Excess Volatility of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 518-530, August.
    5. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1991. "The macroeconomics of the public sector deficit : the case of Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 632, The World Bank.
    6. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1989. "The external effects of public sector deficits," Policy Research Working Paper Series 299, The World Bank.
    7. Carlos Alfredo Rodríguez, 1993. "Money and Credit Under Currency Substitution," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 414-426, June.
    8. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3673-3695, July.
    9. Mr. Jacob A. Frenkel & Mr. Guillermo Calvo, 1991. "From Centrally-Planned to Market Economies: The Road from CPE to PCPE," IMF Working Papers 1991/017, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1994. "Macroeconomic adjustment to capital inflows : Latin American style versus East Asian style," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1377, The World Bank.
    11. Elhanan Helpman & Assaf Razin, 1977. "Towards a Consistent Comparison Between Alternative Exchange Rate Systems," Discussion Papers 276, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    12. Hali J. Edison & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999. "Capital controls during financial crises: the cases of Malaysia and Thailand," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep, pages 1-36.
    13. Tasadduq Imam, 2021. "Model selection for one‐day‐ahead AUD/USD, AUD/EUR forecasts," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1808-1824, April.
    14. Bordo, Michael D & Choudhri, Ehsan U, 1982. "Currency Substitution and the Demand for Money: Some Evidence for Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 48-57, February.
    15. Dorsainvil, Kathleen, 2001. "The parallel market as a policy instrument in collapsing exchange rate regimes," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 27-43.
    16. Chen, Shikuan, 2000. "Endogenous real exchange rate fluctuations in an optimizing open economy model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 185-205, April.
    17. Daniel Daianu & Radu Vranceanu, 2002. "Opening the Capital Account of Transition Economies: How Much and How Fast," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 511, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    18. Kim Kyung-Soo & Lee Jaewoo, 2001. "Asset Price And Current Account Dynamics," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 85-108.
    19. Djajic, Slobodan, 1980. "Intermediate Inputs and International Trade: An Analysis of the Real and Monetary Aspects of an Oil Price Shock," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275164, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    20. Arne C. Kildegaard & Roberto Orro Fernández, 1999. "Dollarization in Cuba and Implications for the Future Transition," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 9.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.