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International Capital Flows and Debt Dynamics

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  • Mr. Martin D Evans

Abstract

This paper presents a new model for studying international capital flows and debt dynamics that emphasizes the role played by expectations concerning future trade flows and returns. I use the model to estimate the drivers of the U.S. external position and capital flows between 1973 and 2008. The estimates show that most of the secular rise in U.S. international indebtedness is attributable to growing optimism about future returns on U.S. holdings of foreign equity and FDI assets. They also show that the transformation of world savings into risky assets by the U.S. had little effect on its external position, but the expected future real depreciation of the dollar allowed the U.S. to sustain a higher level of international debt after the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Martin D Evans, 2012. "International Capital Flows and Debt Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 2012/175, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria V., 2014. "International capital flows, returns and world financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-33.
    2. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert & Martin, Philippe, 2010. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 100-112, January.
    3. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2018. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality--A Portfolio Balance Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 1-47, May.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    5. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Cross-Border Returns Differentials," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(4), pages 1495-1530.
    6. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2009. "Where Did All the Borrowing Go? A Forensic Analysis of the U.S. External Position," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Juann H. Hung & Angelo Mascaro, 2004. "Return on Cross-Border Investment: Why Does U.S. Investment Abroad Do Better? Technical Paper 2004-17," Working Papers 16204, Congressional Budget Office.
    8. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Country portfolio dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1325-1342, July.
    9. Christopher M. Meissner & Alan M. Taylor, 2006. "Losing our marbles in the new century?: the great rebalancing in historical perspective," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    10. Nicolas Magud & Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-10, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    11. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Cédric Tille, 2005. "The income implications of rising U.S. international liabilities," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Dec).
    12. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2010. "Excess returns on net foreign assets: the exorbitant privilege from a global perspective," Working Paper Series 1158, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rey, Hélène & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2013. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances and Valuation Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 9566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Alberto Fuertes, 2019. "External adjustment with a common currency: the case of the euro area," Working Papers 1936, Banco de España.
    3. Alberto Fuertes, 2022. "External adjustment with a common currency: the case of the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2205-2238, May.
    4. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    5. Christian Grisse & Thomas Nitschka, 2016. "Exchange Rate Returns and External Adjustment: Evidence from Switzerland," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 317-339, April.
    6. Alberto Fuertes, 2019. "Exchange rate regime and external adjustment: An empirical investigation for the US," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 1373-1399, May.
    7. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "Chapter 10 External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt42k8h7mp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    8. Mr. Steven T Phillips & Mr. Luis Catão & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Rudolfs Bems & Ms. Mitali Das & Mr. Julian Di Giovanni & Ms. Filiz D Unsal & Marola Castillo & Jungjin Lee & Jair Rodriguez & Mr. Mauric, 2013. "The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology," IMF Working Papers 2013/272, International Monetary Fund.

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