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The Impact of Introducing a Minimum Wage on Business Cycle Volatility: A Structural Analysis for Hong Kong SAR

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

We study the impact of a minimum wage on business cycle volatility, depending upon its coverage and adjustment mechanism. As with other small open economies, Hong Kong SAR is vulnerable to external shocks, with its exchange rate regime precluding active monetary policy. Adjustment to past shocks has relied on flexible domestic prices. We find that a minimum wage affecting 20 percent of employees would amplify output volatility by 0.2 percent to 9.2 percent, and employment volatility by ?1.2 percent to 7.8 percent. A fixed wage or indexation to consumption price inflation increases volatility most. Indexation to wage inflation or unit labor cost growth is preferable, largely preserving labor market flexibility.

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  • International Monetary Fund, 2008. "The Impact of Introducing a Minimum Wage on Business Cycle Volatility: A Structural Analysis for Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 2008/285, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/285
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    1. Bamikole, Oluwafemi, 2013. "The Impact of Minimum Wage on Average Earnings in the Caribbean using Two-Selected Countries, Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica (1980-2011 and 1997-2011)," MPRA Paper 57363, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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