IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2007-230.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Equity Premium Puzzle, Ambiguity Aversion, and Institutional Quality

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Abbas Mirakhor
  • Mr. S. Nuri Erbas

Abstract

With cross-section data from 53 emerging and mature markets, we provide evidence that equity premium puzzle is a global phenomenon. In addition to risk aversion, equity premium may reflect ambiguity aversion. We explore the sources of equity premium using some pertinent fundamental independent variables, as well as the World Bank institutional quality indexes and other proxies for the degree of ambiguity in the sample countries. Some World Bank and other indexes are statistically significant, which indicates that a large part of equity premium may reflect investor aversion to ambiguities resulting from institutional weaknesses.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Abbas Mirakhor & Mr. S. Nuri Erbas, 2007. "The Equity Premium Puzzle, Ambiguity Aversion, and Institutional Quality," IMF Working Papers 2007/230, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/230
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21368
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1993. "Testing for Juxtaposition and Event-Splitting Effects," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 235-254, June.
    2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    3. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-240, April.
    4. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "Average Debt and Equity Returns: Puzzling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 392-397, May.
    5. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    6. Shang-Jin Wei & Mr. Gaston Gelos, 2002. "Transparency and International Investor Behavior," IMF Working Papers 2002/174, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
    8. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2008. "Trusting the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2557-2600, December.
    9. Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002. "Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
    10. Segal, Uzi, 1987. "The Ellsberg Paradox and Risk Aversion: An Anticipated Utility Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 175-202, February.
    11. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    12. Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 1990. "'First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-407, December.
    13. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    14. Craig R. Fox & Amos Tversky, 1995. "Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 585-603.
    15. North, Douglass C, 1994. "Economic Performance through Time," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 359-368, June.
    16. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    17. Galina Hale & Assaf Razin & Hui Tong, 2006. "Institutional Weakness and Stock Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 12127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Rajnish Mehra, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Why is it a Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    21. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    22. Yongseok Shin & Ms. Rachel Glennerster, 2003. "Is Transparency Good for You, and Can the IMF Help?," IMF Working Papers 2003/132, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Zeckhauser Richard, 2006. "Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-41, September.
    24. Humphrey, Steven J, 1995. "Regret Aversion or Event-Splitting Effects? More Evidence under Risk and Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 263-274, December.
    25. Mr. Arvind Subramanian & Mr. Francesco Trebbi & Mr. Dani Rodrik, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Integration and Geography in Economic Development," IMF Working Papers 2002/189, International Monetary Fund.
    26. René M. Stulz, 2007. "The Limits of Financial Globalization," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 19(1), pages 8-15, January.
    27. Faria, Andr & Mauro, Paolo, 2009. "Institutions and the external capital structure of countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 367-391, April.
    28. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Ewijk, Casper & de Groot, Henri L.F. & Santing, A.J. (Coos), 2012. "A meta-analysis of the equity premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 819-830.
    2. Mirakhor, Abbas, 2010. "Whither Islamic Finance? Risk Sharing in An Age of Crises," MPRA Paper 56341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Raj Aggarwal & John Goodell, 2011. "Variations in emerging-market equity premia: impact of financial architecture," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 313-330.
    4. Mirakhor, Abbas, 2007. "Islamic Finance and Globalization: A Convergence?," MPRA Paper 56026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Shaukat, Mughees & Othman Alhabshi, Datuk, 2015. "Instability of Interest Bearing Debt Finance and the Islamic Finance Alternative By Mughees Shaukat & Datuk Othman Alhabshi," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 23, pages 29-84.
    6. Shakill Hassan & Andrew Van Biljon, 2010. "The Equity Premium And Risk‐Free Rate Puzzles In A Turbulent Economy: Evidence From 105 Years Of Data From South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 23-39, March.
    7. Gong, Di & Jiang, Tao & Li, Zhao & Wu, Weixing, 2022. "Optimal loan contracting under policy uncertainty: Theory and international evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Aggarwal, Raj & Goodell, John W., 2011. "International variations in expected equity premia: Role of financial architecture and governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3090-3100, November.
    9. Chen, Daniel L. & Schonger, Martin, 2016. "Testing axiomatizations of ambiguity aversion," TSE Working Papers 16-717, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    10. Bellelah, M.A. & Bellelah, M.O. & Ben Ameur, H. & Ben Hafsia, R., 2017. "Does the equity premium puzzle persist during financial crisis? The case of the French equity market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 851-866.
    11. Rieger, Marc Oliver & Wang, Mei, 2012. "Can ambiguity aversion solve the equity premium puzzle? Survey evidence from international data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 63-72.
    12. Isaac Kleshchelski & Nicolas Vincent, 2007. "Robust Equilibrium Yield Curves," Cahiers de recherche 08-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    13. Hossein Askari & Abbas Mirakhor, 2014. "Risk sharing, public policy and the contribution of Islamic finance," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 67(271), pages 345-379.
    14. Yehuda Izhakian, 2012. "Ambiguity Measurement," Working Papers 12-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    15. Nahil Boussiga & Ezzeddine Abaoub, 2015. "How Does Government Policy Affect Equity Risk Premium?," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 4(2), pages 65-75.
    16. He, Ying & Dyer, James S. & Butler, John C. & Jia, Jianmin, 2019. "An additive model of decision making under risk and ambiguity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 78-92.
    17. Alonso, Irasema & Prado, Mauricio, 2015. "Ambiguity aversion, asset prices, and the welfare costs of aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 78-92.
    18. Mirakhor , Abbas & Shaukat , Mughees, 2012. "Survival of the Interest Rate Based Debt Financing System," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, July.
    19. Muhammad Imran & Mengyun Wu & Shuibin Gu & Shah Saud & Muhammad Abbas, 2019. "Influence of economic and non-economic factors on firm level equity premium: Evidence from Pakistan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1774-1785.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. S. Nuri Erbas, 2004. "Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength," IMF Working Papers 2004/115, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Rieger, Marc Oliver & Wang, Mei, 2012. "Can ambiguity aversion solve the equity premium puzzle? Survey evidence from international data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 63-72.
    3. Yehuda Izhakian, 2012. "Ambiguity Measurement," Working Papers 12-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    4. Roelof Salomons, 2008. "A Theoretical And Practical Perspective On The Equity Risk Premium," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 299-329, April.
    5. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    6. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    7. Minh Hai Ngo & Marc Oliver Rieger & Shuonan Yuan, 2018. "The Fundamental Equity Premium and Ambiguity Aversion in an International Context," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-24, November.
    8. John Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2007. "Risk Based Explanations of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 13220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mao-Wei Hung & Jr-Yan Wang, 2011. "Loss aversion and the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(29), pages 4623-4640.
    10. Luca De Gennaro Aquino & Xuedong He & Moris Simon Strub & Yuting Yang, 2024. "Reference-dependent asset pricing with a stochastic consumption-dividend ratio," Papers 2401.12856, arXiv.org.
    11. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: A Unified Explanation for Equity Puzzles," MPRA Paper 68729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Stefano DellaVigna, 2009. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-372, June.
    13. Marc Oliver Rieger & Thorsten Hens & Mei Wang, 2013. "International Evidence on the Equity Premium Puzzle and Time Discounting," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 17(3-4), pages 149-163, September.
    14. Jaroslava Hlouskova & Jana Mikocziova & Rudolf Sivak & Peter Tsigaris, 2014. "Capital Income Taxation and Risk-Taking under Prospect Theory: The Continuous Distribution Case," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(5), pages 374-391, November.
    15. Izhakian, Yehuda, 2020. "A theoretical foundation of ambiguity measurement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    16. Berkelaar, Arjan & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2009. "From boom 'til bust: How loss aversion affects asset prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1005-1013, June.
    17. Jaroslava Hlouskova & Panagiotis Tsigaris, 2012. "Capital income taxation and risk taking under prospect theory," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 554-573, August.
    18. Grant, Simon & Quiggin, John, 2003. "The Risk Premium for Equity: Implicatiosn for Resource Allocation, Welfare adn Policy," Working Papers 2003-14, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    19. Bellelah, M.A. & Bellelah, M.O. & Ben Ameur, H. & Ben Hafsia, R., 2017. "Does the equity premium puzzle persist during financial crisis? The case of the French equity market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 851-866.
    20. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/230. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.