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Social Fractionalization, Political Instability, and the Size of Government

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  • Mr. Anthony M Annett

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between the degree of division or fractionalization of a country’s population (along ethnolinguistic and religious dimensions) and both political instability and government consumption, using a neoclassical growth model. The principal idea is that greater fractionalization, proxying for the degree of conflict in society, leads to political instability, which in turn leads to higher government consumption aimed at placating the opposition. There is also a feedback mechanism whereby the higher consumption leads to less instability as government consumption reduces the risk of losing office. Empirical evidence based on panel estimation supports this hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Anthony M Annett, 2000. "Social Fractionalization, Political Instability, and the Size of Government," IMF Working Papers 2000/082, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/082
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hibrahim LIMI KOUOTOU, 2022. "L’effet du conflit de générations entre chef d’Etat et population sur les risques d’instabilité politique en Afrique," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 56, pages 25-40.
    2. Ibrahim Tutar & Aysit Tansel, 2012. "An Analysis Of Political And Institutional Power Dispersion: The Case Of Turkey," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(4), pages 548-565, October.
    3. Milanovic, Branko, 2003. "Is inequality in Africa really different ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3169, The World Bank.
    4. Stegarescu, Dan, 2004. "Economic Integration and Fiscal Decentralization: Evidence from OECD Countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-86, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Babacar Sarr, 2016. "What Are the Drivers of Fiscal Performance Gaps between Anglophone and Francophone Africa? A Blinder–Oaxaca Decomposition," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 40-62, March.
    6. Kéa Baret & Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Théophilos Papadimitriou, 2021. "Forecasting the Stability and Growth Pact compliance using Machine Learning," Working Papers of BETA 2021-01, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. GOMADO, Kwamivi Mawuli, 2018. "Diversité ethnique et déforestation dans les pays en développement: identification des principaux canaux [Ethnic diversity and deforestation in developing countries: identifying the transmission ch," MPRA Paper 89380, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mounir MARZOUGUI, 2016. "L’impact de l’instabilité politique sur la volatilité de l’inflation dans les pays en développement," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 7(1), June.
    9. Boris Gramc, 2007. "Factors of the Size of Government in Developed Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(2), pages 130-142.
    10. Luisa Blanco & Robin Grier, 2009. "Long Live Democracy: The Determinants of Political Instability in Latin America," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 76-95.
    11. Carine Meyimdjui, 2020. "Imported Food Price Shocks and Socio-Political Instability: Do Fiscal Policy and Remittances Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2020/248, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mounir MARZOUGUI, 2016. "L’impact de l’instabilité politique sur la volatilité de l’inflation dans les pays en développement," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 7(1), June.
    13. Kountouris, Yiannis & Nakic, Zoran & Sauer, Johannes, 2015. "Political instability and non-market valuation: Evidence from Croatia," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 19-39.

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