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Long Live Democracy: The Determinants of Political Instability in Latin America

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  • Luisa Blanco
  • Robin Grier

Abstract

We investigate the underlying causes of political instability in a panel of 18 Latin American countries from 1971-2000. We test whether regime type, regime durability, factionalism, income inequality, ethnic diversity, ethnic discrimination, regional spillover effects, urban growth and macroeconomic variables matter for instability. We find several important results: (1) democracy has a significant negative effect on instability that is robust to several alternative specifications; (2) factionalised political systems experience higher instability; (3) income inequality, ethnic fractionalisation, and urban growth have important nonlinear effects on instability; and (4) of the macroeconomic variables we study, only openness to trade has a significant negative effect on instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Luisa Blanco & Robin Grier, 2009. "Long Live Democracy: The Determinants of Political Instability in Latin America," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 76-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:45:y:2009:i:1:p:76-95
    DOI: 10.1080/00220380802264788
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    2. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422.
    3. Mr. Anthony M Annett, 2000. "Social Fractionalization, Political Instability, and the Size of Government," IMF Working Papers 2000/082, International Monetary Fund.
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    5. World Bank, 2005. "World Development Indicators 2005," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12426, December.
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