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Portugal: Selected Issues

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper estimates the fiscal impact of demographic changes in Portugal and the euro area over the period 2015–2100. Under the baseline projections of the United Nations, Portugal is among the countries in the euro area that is expected to be most hurt by demographic developments. During 2015–2100, its population is expected to shrink by about 30 percent while the old-age dependency ratio is expected to more than double, driven mostly by low fertility, higher longevity, and migration outflows. Age-related public spending would increase by about 6 percentage points of GDP under the baseline over the period 2015–50, and the public debt path would become unsustainable in the absence of offsetting policies.

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  • International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Portugal: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/301, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2016/301
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44283
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andreas Jobst & Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin, 2016. "Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP): Implications for Monetary Transmission and Bank Profitability in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2016/172, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gil Nogueira & Luísa Farinha & Laura Blattner, 2016. "The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Lending Conditions," Working Papers w201608, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Véron, 2016. "The IMF’s role in the euro-area crisis- financial sector aspects," Policy Contributions 16213, Bruegel.

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