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Bank Overleverage and Macroeconomic Fragility

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  • Ryo Kato

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: ryou.katou@boj.or.jp))

  • Takayuki Tsuruga

    (Associate Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, (E-mail: tsuruga@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp))

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model that explicitly includes a banking sector with a maturity mismatch. We demonstrate that, despite the perfect competition in the banking sector, rational banks take on excessive risks systemically, resulting in overleverage and inefficiently high crisis probabilities. The model accounts for the banks' rational over-optimism regarding future capital prices which arises from pecuniary externalities on their own solvency. Using the model as an example, we introduce MSR (marginal systemic risk) as a general measure to assess the macroeconomic exposure to systemic risks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 11-E-15.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:11-e-15

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Keywords: Financial crisis; Liquidity shortage; Maturity mismatch; Pecuniary externalities;

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  1. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2012. "Illiquid Banks, Financial Stability, and Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(3), pages 552 - 591.
  2. Kato, Ryo, 2006. "Liquidity, infinite horizons and macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1105-1130, July.
  3. Jeanne, O. & Korinek, A., 2010. "Managing Credit Booms and Busts: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach," Discussion Paper 2010-108S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Robert J. Barro, 2007. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," NBER Working Papers 13690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
  6. Javier Bianchi, 2010. "Credit Externalities: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 398-402, May.
  7. Jeremy C. Stein, 2012. "Monetary Policy as Financial Stability Regulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 57-95.
  8. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," CEPR Discussion Papers 7131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  11. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo & Kozo Ueda, 2009. "Chained Credit Contracts and Financial Accelerators," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-30, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  12. Enrique Mendoza & Javier Bianchi, 2010. "Overborrowing, financial crises and ‘macro-prudential’ taxes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct.
  13. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Inefficient Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 13639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ryo Kato & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2011. "The Safer, the Riskier:A Model of Bank Leverage and Financial Instability," Discussion papers e-10-014, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
  15. Meh, Césaire A. & Moran, Kevin, 2010. "The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 555-576, March.
  16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
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Cited by:
  1. Anton Korinek & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Macroprudential Regulation Versus Mopping Up After the Crash," 2013 Meeting Papers 405, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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