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Assessing the impact of ASEAN economic integration on labour markets

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  • Plummer, Michael G.
  • Petri, Peter A.
  • Zhai, Fan,

Abstract

Enhancing regional economic integration has become an important priority for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Building on the ASEAN Free Trade Area, ASEAN has been implementing the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) since 2007, scheduled for completion in 2015. The AEC is in many ways the most ambitious economic cooperation programme in the developing world, with its goal being the creation of an economic space in which there will be a free flow of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labour. In addition, ASEAN has cemented free trade areas with six regional partners (Japan, Republic of Korea, People’s Republic of China, Australia, New Zealand and India) and, together with these economies, launched the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP) in November 2012, also with the goal of completion in 2015. This study estimates the implications of the regional integration initiatives on ASEAN Member States using a cutting-edge computable general equilibrium model. In addition to gauging the effects on welfare, trade and economic structure, it considers the ramifications for labour markets. Using detailed data from the labour force surveys available for six ASEAN markets, the paper captures the effects of these initiatives on seven categories of labour at the occupational level. It also includes estimates of the distributional effects of these initiatives for labour relative to other factors (capital and land) and on gender.

Suggested Citation

  • Plummer, Michael G. & Petri, Peter A. & Zhai, Fan,, 2014. "Assessing the impact of ASEAN economic integration on labour markets," ILO Working Papers 994863513402676, International Labour Organization.
    • Handle: RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994863513402676
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lippoldt, Douglas, 2013. "Policy Priorities for International Trade and Jobs," 2013: Employment, Immigration and Trade, December 15-17, 2013, Clearwater Beach, Florida 182509, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    2. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6642, October.
    3. Thomas W. Hertel & Terrie Walmsley & Ken Itakura, 2005. "Dynamic Effects Of The "New Age" Free Trade Agreement Between Japan And Singapore," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Philippa Dee & Michael Ferrantino (ed.), Quantitative Methods For Assessing The Effects Of Non-Tariff Measures And Trade Facilitation, chapter 18, pages 483-523, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    5. Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 575-604.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Barat, 2017. "Le Vietnam, nouvel atelier du monde ? Opportunités et enjeux," Working Paper 48807364-7e74-4f94-9a3b-e, Agence française de développement.
    2. Andrista, Safira & Widodo, Tri, 2017. "Welfare Impact of ASEAN Economic Integration: “ASEAN Way” Versus Theory," MPRA Paper 80880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ekaterina Y. ARAPOVA, 2017. "Ex-Post Analysis Of The Influence Of Tariff Liberalisation On Asean Exports," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(2), pages 135-154.
    4. Abidin ÖNCEL & Raisal Fahrozi LUBİS, 2017. "What impact has free trade area on economies of ASEAN-5 countries?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 51-62, Autumn.

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