IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iim/iimawp/14593.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of Price Path on Disposition Bias

Author

Listed:
  • Bansal, Avijit
  • Jacob, Joshy

Abstract

Recent experimental studies have illustrated the influence of price-path, particularly the `non-straight' price-path on several aspects of investor behavior. The paper computes a proxy for price-path based on Cumulative Prospect Theory and with investor- level high-frequency trade data from the commodities futures market, demonstrates that the nature of the price-path significantly impacts the degree of disposition bias, after controlling for the level of returns and volatility of the commodity. We find that the experience of a favorable (unfavorable) price-path, decreases (increases) disposition bias among the traders with Prospect Theory preferences. The decline (increase) in disposition bias is an outcome of the decline (increase) in the propensity for gain realization, accompanied by a concurrent increase (decline) in the propensity for loss realization among the traders. We conjecture that both investor preferences and beliefs about future price movement, inferred from the price-path experienced, influence their trading decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bansal, Avijit & Jacob, Joshy, 2018. "Impact of Price Path on Disposition Bias," IIMA Working Papers WP 2018-10-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:iim:iimawp:14593
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iima.ac.in/sites/default/files/rnpfiles/10557437152018-10-01.pdf
    File Function: English Version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    2. Tom Y. Chang & David H. Solomon & Mark M. Westerfield, 2016. "Looking for Someone to Blame: Delegation, Cognitive Dissonance, and the Disposition Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 267-302, February.
    3. Philip Brown & Nick Chappel & Ray Da Silva Rosa & Terry Walter, 2006. "The Reach of the Disposition Effect: Large Sample Evidence Across Investor Classes," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 6(1‐2), pages 43-78, March.
    4. Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 15-25, 01-02.
    5. Andrea Frazzini, 2006. "The Disposition Effect and Underreaction to News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 2017-2046, August.
    6. Urs Fischbacher & Gerson Hoffmann & Simeon Schudy, 2017. "The Causal Effect of Stop-Loss and Take-Gain Orders on the Disposition Effect," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 2110-2129.
    7. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2001. "What Makes Investors Trade?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 589-616, April.
    8. James J. Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian, 2010. "Why Does the Law of One Price Fail? An Experiment on Index Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1405-1432, April.
    9. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
    10. Nicholas Barberis & Abhiroop Mukherjee & Baolian Wang, 2016. "Prospect Theory and Stock Returns: An Empirical Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(11), pages 3068-3107.
    11. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
    13. Hyuk Choe & Yunsung Eom, 2009. "The disposition effect and investment performance in the futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 496-522, June.
    14. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    15. De Bondt, Werner P. M., 1993. "Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 355-371, November.
    16. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    17. Nuttawat Visaltanachoti & Hang Luo & Lin Lu, 2007. "Holding periods, illiquidity and disposition effect in the Chinese stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(15), pages 1265-1274.
    18. Grosshans, Daniel & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2018. "All’s well that ends well? On the importance of how returns are achieved," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 397-410.
    19. Shapira, Zur & Venezia, Itzhak, 2001. "Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and independent investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1573-1587, August.
    20. Itzhak Ben-David & David Hirshleifer, 2012. "Are Investors Really Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? Trading Responses to Past Returns and the Disposition Effect," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(8), pages 2485-2532.
    21. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2005. "Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 311-339, November.
    22. Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January.
    23. Cary Frydman & Colin Camerer, 2016. "Neural Evidence of Regret and Its Implications for Investor Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(11), pages 3108-3139.
    24. Cary Frydman & Nicholas Barberis & Colin Camerer & Peter Bossaerts & Antonio Rangel, 2014. "Using Neural Data to Test a Theory of Investor Behavior: An Application to Realization Utility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 907-946, April.
    25. Niklas Karlsson & George Loewenstein & Duane Seppi, 2009. "The ostrich effect: Selective attention to information," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 95-115, April.
    26. Kumar, Alok, 2009. "Hard-to-Value Stocks, Behavioral Biases, and Informed Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(6), pages 1375-1401, December.
    27. Brad M. Barber & Yi-Tsung Lee & Yu-Jane Liu & Terrance Odean, 2009. "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 609-632, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernard, Sabine & Loos, Benjamin & Weber, Martin, 2021. "The disposition effect in boom and bust markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 305, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Marco Pleßner, 2017. "The disposition effect: a survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 1-30, February.
    3. Hincapié-Salazar, Juliana & Agudelo, Diego A., 2020. "Is the disposition effect in bonds as strong as in stocks? Evidence from an emerging market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    4. Karolis Liaudinskas, 2022. "Human vs. Machine: Disposition Effect among Algorithmic and Human Day Traders," Working Paper 2022/6, Norges Bank.
    5. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    6. Sarmiento, Julio & Rendón, Jairo & Sandoval, Juan S. & Cayon, Edgardo, 2019. "The disposition effect and the relevance of the reference period: Evidence among sophisticated investors," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    7. Li, Jianbiao & Niu, Xiaofei & Li, Dahui & Cao, Qian, 2018. "Using Non-Invasive Brain Stimulation to Test the Role of Self-Control in Investor Behavior," EconStor Preprints 177890, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Dorn, Daniel & Strobl, Günter, 2023. "Rational disposition effects: Theory and evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten & Meyer, Steffen & Hackethal, Andreas, 2019. "Taming models of prospect theory in the wild? Estimation of Vlcek and Hens (2011)," SAFE Working Paper Series 146, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2019.
    10. Weber, Martin & Welfens, Frank, 2007. "An Individual Level Analysis of the Disposition Effect: Empirical and Experimental Evidence," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-45, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    11. da Silva, Paulo Pereira & Mendes, Victor, 2021. "Exchange-traded certificates, education and the disposition effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    12. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.
    13. Eom, Yunsung, 2018. "The opposite disposition effect: Evidence from the Korean stock index futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 261-265.
    14. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten, 2017. "On the applicability of maximum likelihood methods: From experimental to financial data," SAFE Working Paper Series 148, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2017.
    15. Kahya, Evrim Hilal & Ekinci, Cumhur, 2022. "Disposition bias among Borsa Istanbul investors: What do we know about type, size and trading frequency?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    16. repec:cup:judgdm:v:12:y:2017:i:2:p:118-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Li, Yan & Yang, Liyan, 2013. "Prospect theory, the disposition effect, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 715-739.
    18. Daniela Vesselinova Balkanska, 2018. "Disposition effect and analyst forecast dispersion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 837-859, April.
    19. Li An & Huijun Wang & Jian Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2020. "Lottery-Related Anomalies: The Role of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 473-501, January.
    20. Matteo Ploner, 2017. "Hold on to it? An experimental analysis of the disposition effect," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(2), pages 118-127, March.
    21. Kliger, Doron & Kudryavtsev, Andrey, 2008. "Reference point formation by market investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1782-1794, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iim:iimawp:14593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eciimin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.