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Modeling National Accounts Sub-Aggregates. An Application of Non-Linear Error Correction

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Author Info

  • Jumah, Adusei

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna and Department of Economics, University of Vienna)

  • Kunst, Robert M.

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna and Department of Economics, University of Vienna)

Abstract

Many macroeconometric models depict situations where the shares of the major demand aggregates in output are stable over time. The joint dynamic behavior of the considered demand aggregate and output may thus be approximated by a cointegrated vector autoregression. However, the shares of many demand sub-aggregates in output are rather mobile and changing over time. In order to simultaneously capture the flexibility of the shares of the sub-aggregates and the long-run constancy of the share of the total aggregate, we consider trivariate systems of two macroeconomic sub-aggregates and output with errorcorrection terms that are non-linear functions of the original variables. The merits of the models are evaluated by means of several forecasting experiments.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-149.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 149.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:149

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Related research

Keywords: Macroeconomic accounts; Great ratios; Non-linear error correction; Forecasting;

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  2. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2005. "Forecasting Aggregate Demand in West African Economies. The Influence of Immigrant Remittance Flows and of Asymmetric Error Correction," Economics Series 168, Institute for Advanced Studies.

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