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Tobacco smuggling in the Western Balkan region: Exploring habits, attitudes, and predictors of illegal tobacco demand

Author

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  • Vedran Recher

    (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb)

Abstract

In this paper, the relationship between unemployment and crime is analysed. A panel of 20 Croatian counties over the years 1998-2013 is used to estimate the effect of unemployment on the rates of various groups of property and violent crimes. According to the theory of economics of crime, increase in unemployment leads to higher crime rates. A fixed-effects model, including time- and county-specific effects and several covariates, is estimated. The results show there is no impact of unemployment on aggregate property crimes. For all violent crimes bar rapes, the results oppose the theory and intuition. The unexpected results are discussed in the context of the Croatian-specific macro-environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Vedran Recher, 2019. "Tobacco smuggling in the Western Balkan region: Exploring habits, attitudes, and predictors of illegal tobacco demand," Working Papers 1901, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:iez:wpaper:1901
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    File URL: https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/317184
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jagdish Bhagwati & Bent Hansen, 1973. "A Theoretical Analysis of Smuggling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(2), pages 172-187.
    2. Michael J. Hanmer & Kerem Ozan Kalkan, 2013. "Behind the Curve: Clarifying the Best Approach to Calculating Predicted Probabilities and Marginal Effects from Limited Dependent Variable Models," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 263-277, January.
    3. Will Bartlett, 2009. "Economic Development In The European Super-Periphery: Evidence From The Western Balkans," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 54(181), pages 21-44, April – J.
    4. Hugh Griffiths, 2004. "Smoking Guns: European Cigarette Smuggling in the 1990’s," Global Crime, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 185-200, May.
    5. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Srinivasan, T. N., 1973. "Smuggling and trade policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 377-389.
    6. Becker, Jens, 2008. "The European Union and the western Balkans," SEER Journal for Labour and Social Affairs in Eastern Europe, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 11(1), pages 7-27.
    7. Jha, Prabhat & Chaloupka, Frank (ed.), 2000. "Tobacco Control in Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192632463.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jelena Budak & Edo Rajh & Goran Buturac & Anamarija Brkovic, 2019. "Public opinion on tobacco gray market in the Western Balkans: A cluster analysis approach," Working Papers 1904, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    smuggling; tobacco; logit; Western Balkans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other

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