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Las Interrupciones Súbitas Sistémicas: Importancia de los Efectos del Balance General y la Integración Financiera

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Author Info
Guillermo A. Calvo
Alejandro Izquierdo ()
Luis Fernando Mejía

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Abstract

Utilizando una muestra de 110 países desarrollados y países en desarrollo para el período 1990-2004, este documento analiza las características de las interrupciones súbitas sistémicas (3S, por sus siglas en inglés) en flujos de capital y la relevancia de los efectos del balance general en la probabilidad de su materialización. Una pequeña oferta de bienes comerciables relativos a su absorción interna, un poder para cambios potenciales en el tipo de cambio real y grandes deudas expresadas en divisas hacia el sistema bancario nacional son presentados como factores determinantes de las probabilidades de 3S, produciendo un efecto de balance general con impactos no lineales en la probabilidad de 3S. Mientras que la integración financiera está hasta un punto relacionada a una mayor probabilidad de 3S, más allá de tal punto la integración financiera se asocia a una probabilidad más baja de 3S.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4582.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4582

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  1. Guilkey, David K. & Murphy, James L., 1993. "Estimation and testing in the random effects probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 301-317, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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