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Les déterminants de l'inactivité économique et de la non-scolarisation des enfants aux Comores et à Madagascar. Existe-t-il une courbe de Kuznets ?

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  • Jean-Pierre Lachaud

    (GED, Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV)

Abstract

Aux Comores, 23,9 pour cent des enfants de 7-17 ans sont simultanément absents de l’école et du travail, tandis qu’à Madagascar l’incidence est de 14,3 pour cent pour ceux de 6-17 ans. L’étude analyse les déterminants de ce processus d’éviction, et produit deux conclusions. En premier lieu, une investigation descriptive évalue l’incidence « réelle » du groupe des enfants économiquement inactifs et non-scolarisés, c’est-à-dire celle qui pourrait prévaloir en l’absence de travail domestique, de recherche d’emploi et de maladie et/ou de blessure. Cette approche, admettant l’hypothèse de substitution parfaite entre les diverses allocations du temps, montre que l’impact potentiel de ces trois facteurs est faible. En effet, aux Comores, leur contribution réduit de 23,4 pour cent l’incidence du groupe considéré, tandis qu’à Madagascar, l’atténuation n’est que de 9,8 pour cent. Néanmoins, le poids des activités domestiques, exercées principalement par les filles de 15-17 ans, est susceptible d’avoir un impact non négligeable dans certaines zones. Par ailleurs, aux Comores, l’ampleur du groupe des enfants économiquement inactifs et ne fréquentant pas l’école n’a pas nécessairement un caractère chronique. En deuxième lieu, l’approche économétrique met en évidence plusieurs déterminants de l’« inactivité » des enfants. D’une part, les caractéristiques des enfants – âge, sexe, relation avec le chef de ménage, et état de santé –, des adultes et des ménages – éducation des parents, taille et composition démographique des familles, et migration des adultes –, l’intensité du travail rémunéré au sein des ménages, le mode de participation des adultes au marché du travail, et le capital social – notamment aux Comores –, ont un rôle significatif. D’autre part, l’interférence des revenus des ménages est réelle, bien que plus complexe à appréhender. L’approche standard relative aux Comores suggère une relation positive entre les revenus des ménages et l’exclusion des enfants à la fois du travail et de l’école. Mais, l’estimation économétrique en splines produit une relation en U renversé entre ces deux variables, qui évoque une courbe de Kuznets. De tels résultats peuvent complexifier les recommandations de politique économique, en particulier dans quelle mesure la réduction de l’« inactivité » des enfants peut favoriser plus l’école que le marché du travail. In the Comoros, 23.9 percent of children of the 7-17 age are left out of both school and economic activity, while in Madagascar the incidence is 14.3 percent for those of the 6-17 age. The study analyzes the determinants of this process of exclusion, and produces two conclusions. Firstly, a descriptive analysis assesses the « real » incidence of the group of out-of-school and non-economically children, i.e. one that could prevail in the absence of household chores, seeking work, or chronic illness/disability. This approach, admitting the assumption of perfect substitution between the various allocations of time, shows that the potential impact of these three factors is weak. Indeed, in the Comoros, their contribution decreases by 23.4 percent the incidence of that group, while in Madagascar, the reduction is only 9,8 percent. Nevertheless, the weight of domestic chores, carried out mainly by girls of the 15-17 age, is likely to have a considerable impact in some areas. In addition, in the Comoros, the extent of the group of economically inactive and not attending school children is not necessarily chronic. Secondly, the econometric approach highlights several determinants of the « inactivity » of children. On the one hand, the characteristics of children – age, sex, relationship with the household head and health condition –, adults and households – parental education, size and demographic composition of families, and migration of adults –, the intensity of paid work within the household, the mode of participation of adults in the labour market, and the social capital – in particular in the Comoros –, have a significant role. On the other hand, the interference of household income is real, although more complex to understand. The standard approach on the Comoros suggests a positive relationship between household income and the exclusion of children from both work and school. However, the spline regression model produces a reversed U-shaped relationship between these two variables, which evokes a Kuznets curve. Such results may complexity the recommendations of economic policy, in particular to what extent the reduction of the « inactivity » of children could encourage greater attendance as participation in the labour market.(Full text in french)

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 140.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:140

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  1. Kaushik Basu & Zafiris Tzannatos, 2003. "The Global Child Labor Problem: What Do We Know and What Can We Do?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 17(2), pages 147-173, December.
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  4. Steven N. Durlauf, 2002. "On the Empirics of Social Capital," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 459-479, November.
  5. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
  6. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio Camillo & Tzannatos, Zafiris, 2001. "Child labor, nutrition, and education in rural India : an economic analysis of parental choice and policy options," Social Protection Discussion Papers 24081, The World Bank.
  7. Suits, Daniel B & Mason, Andrew & Chan, Louis, 1978. "Spline Functions Fitted by Standard Regression Methods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 132-39, February.
  8. Kanbur, Ravi & Haddad, Lawrence, 1990. "Is there an intra household Kuznets curve? Some evidence from the Philippines," Policy Research Working Paper Series 466, The World Bank.
  9. Jean-Pierre Lachaud, 1996. "Les femmes et le marché du travail urbain en Afrique subsaharienne," Série de recherche 01, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
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