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El aspecto empírico de las paradas repentinas: la importancia de sus efectos en el balance general

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  • Guillermo A. Calvo
  • Alejandro Izquierdo

    ()

  • Luis Fernando Mejía

Abstract

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Usando una muestra de 32 países desarrollados y en desarrollo, analizamos las características empíricas de las paradas repentinas en los flujos de capitales y la pertinencia de los efectos del balance general en la probabilidad de que ocurran las mismas. Hallamos que las fluctuaciones considerables del tipo de cambio real, acompañadas de paradas repentinas, son básicamente un fenómeno propio de los mercados emergentes. Las paradas repentinas parecen producirse en grupos y afectar por igual a países que se diferencian entre sí en muchos aspectos. Sin embargo, los países se parecen en que siguen siendo vulnerables a grandes fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio real. Éste puede ser el caso, porque los países se ven obligados a efectuar ajustes considerables en la absorción de bienes transables y porque la cuantía de los pasivos en dólares del sistema bancario (es decir, la dolarización de los pasivos internos) es considerable, o ambas cosas. La apertura, vista como una oferta considerable de bienes transables que reduce el apalancamiento sobre el déficit de cuenta corriente, conjuntamente con la dolarización de los pasivos internos, es un factor determinante clave de la probabilidad de que se produzcan paradas repentinas. La relación entre la apertura económica y la dolarización de los pasivos internos en la determinación de la probabilidad de que se produzca una parada repentina es altamente no lineal, lo que implica que la interacción del elevado apalancamiento de la cuenta corriente y una dolarización elevada puede resultar una combinación peligrosa.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4368.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4368

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  1. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
  2. Guilkey, David K. & Murphy, James L., 1993. "Estimation and testing in the random effects probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 301-317, October.
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