IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ibm/ibmecp/wpe_281.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of the Implied Equity Risk Premium in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Sanvicente, Antonio Zoratto
  • Carvalho, Mauricio Rocha Alves de

Abstract

This paper proposes and tests market determinants of the equity risk premium (ERP) in Brazil. We use implied ERP, based on the Elton (1999) critique. The ultimate goal of this exercise is to demonstrate that the calculation of implied, as opposed to historical ERP makes sense, because it varies, in the expected direction, with changes in fundamental market indicators. The ERP for Brazil is calculated as a mean of large samples of individual stock prices in each month in the January, 1995 to September, 2015 period, using the 'implied risk premium' approach. As determinants of changes in the ERP we obtain, as significant, and in the expected direction: changes in the CDI rate, in the country debt risk spread, in the US market liquidity premium and in the level of the S&P500. The influence of the proposed determining factors is tested with the use of time series regression analysis. The possibility of a change in that relationship with the 2008 crisis was also tested, and the results indicate that the global financial crisis had no significant impact on the nature of the relationship between the ERP and its determining factors. For comparison purposes, we also consider the same variables as determinants of the ERP calculated with average historical returns, as is common in professional practice. First, the constructed series does not exhibit any relationship to known market-events. Second, the variables found to be significantly associated with historical ERP do not exhibit any intuitive relationship with compensation for market risk.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Sanvicente, Antonio Zoratto & Carvalho, Mauricio Rocha Alves de, 2012. "Determinants of the Implied Equity Risk Premium in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_281, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibm:ibmecp:wpe_281
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.insper.edu.br/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2012_wpe281.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Ľuboš Pástor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2008. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk–Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2859-2897, December.
    3. MINARDI, Andrea Maria Accioly Fonseca & SANVICENTE, Antônio Zoratto & Montenegro, Carlos Mauro Galivi & Donatelli, Danielle Hatem & Bignotto, Fernando Graciano, 2007. "Estimando O Custo De Capital De Companhias Fechadas No Brasil Para Uma Melhor Gestão Estratégica De Projetos," Insper Working Papers wpe_81, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    4. Sanvicente, Antonio Z., 2008. "A Relevância de Prêmios por Risco Soberano e Risco Cambial no Uso do CAPM para a Estimação do Custo de Capital das Empresas," Insper Working Papers wpe_131, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    5. Edwin J. Elton, 1999. "Presidential Address: Expected Return, Realized Return, and Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1199-1220, August.
    6. Sanvicente, A. Z. & Minardi, A. M. A. F., 1999. "Problemas de Estimação de Custo de Capital no Brasil," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_15, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    7. William R. Gebhardt & Charles M. C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2001. "Toward an Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 135-176, June.
    8. Luzi Hail & Christian Leuz, 2006. "International Differences in the Cost of Equity Capital: Do Legal Institutions and Securities Regulation Matter?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 485-531, June.
    9. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    10. Peter Easton & Gary Taylor & Pervin Shroff & Theodore Sougiannis, 2002. "Using Forecasts of Earnings to Simultaneously Estimate Growth and the Rate of Return on Equity Investment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 657-676, June.
    11. Bruno Faustino Lima & Antonio Zoratto Sanvicente, 2013. "Quality of Corporate Governance and Cost of Equity in Brazil," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 25(1), pages 72-80, March.
    12. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, December.
    13. David Javakhadze & Stephen P. Ferris & Dan W. French, 2016. "Managerial Social Capital and Financial Development: A Cross-Country Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 37-68, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guanais, Luiz Felipe Poli & Sanvicente, Antonio Zoratto & Sheng, Hsia Hua, 2017. "Cost of equity estimation for the Brazilian market: a test of the Goldman Sachs model," Textos para discussão 447, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    2. Alexandre de Carvalho & Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos, 2020. "Is the Equity Risk Premium Compressed in Brazil?," Working Papers Series 527, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Echterling, F. & Eierle, B. & Ketterer, S., 2015. "A review of the literature on methods of computing the implied cost of capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 235-252.
    2. Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Hakkon Kim & Kwangwoo Park, 2018. "Corporate Environmental Responsibility and the Cost of Capital: International Evidence," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 335-361, May.
    3. Pengguo Wang, 2018. "Future Realized Return, Firm‐specific Risk and the Implied Expected Return," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 54(1), pages 105-132, March.
    4. Norio Kitagawa & Hyonok Kim & Masatoshi Goto, 2011. "The effect of non-financial risk information on the evaluation of implied cost of capitals," Discussion Papers 2011-07, Kobe University, Graduate School of Business Administration, revised Feb 2011.
    5. El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Pittman, Jeffrey, 2016. "Cross-country evidence on the importance of Big Four auditors to equity pricing: The mediating role of legal institutions," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 60-81.
    6. Sie Ting Lau & Lilian Ng & Bohui Zhang, 2012. "Information Environment and Equity Risk Premium Volatility Around the World," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1322-1340, July.
    7. Saad, Mohsen & Samet, Anis, 2017. "Liquidity and the implied cost of equity capital," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 15-38.
    8. Norio Kitagawa & Masatoshi Gotoh, 2011. "Implied Cost of Capital over the Last 20 Years," The Japanese Accounting Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 1, pages 71-104, December.
    9. Lau, Sie Ting & Ng, Lilian & Zhang, Bohui, 2010. "The world price of home bias," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 191-217, August.
    10. Ferreira Savoia, José Roberto & Securato, José Roberto & Bergmann, Daniel Reed & Lopes da Silva, Fabiana, 2019. "Comparing results of the implied cost of capital and capital asset pricing models for infrastructure firms in Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 149-158.
    11. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    12. Najah Attig & Sean Cleary & Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami, 2013. "Institutional Investment Horizons and the Cost of Equity Capital," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 441-477, June.
    13. Hamdi Ben‐Nasr & Narjess Boubakri & Jean‐Claude Cosset, 2012. "The Political Determinants of the Cost of Equity: Evidence from Newly Privatized Firms," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 605-646, June.
    14. Jan A. Kempkes & Francesco Suprano & Andreas Wömpener, 2023. "An empirical evaluation of dynamic approaches for estimating firms’ expected cost of equity capital," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 859-886, November.
    15. Rjiba, Hatem & Saadi, Samir & Boubaker, Sabri & Ding, Xiaoya (Sara), 2021. "Annual report readability and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Ann E. Sherman & Yong Zhang, 2014. "The Long-Run Role of the Media: Evidence from Initial Public Offerings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(8), pages 1945-1964, August.
    17. Teresa Chu & In-Mu Haw & Bryan Lee & Woody Wu, 2014. "Cost of equity capital, control divergence, and institutions: the international evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 483-527, October.
    18. David Schröder, 2020. "The role of market efficiency on implied cost of capital estimates: an international perspective," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 463-499, December.
    19. Belkhir, Mohamed & Saad, Mohsen & Samet, Anis, 2020. "Stock extreme illiquidity and the cost of capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    20. Wu, Jin (Ginger) & Zhang, Lu, 2010. "Does Risk Explain Anomalies? Evidence from Expected Return Estimates," Working Paper Series 2010-18, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibm:ibmecp:wpe_281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Naercio Menezes (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibmecbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.