IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hnb/wpaper/30.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Credit Migration Matrices with Aggregate Data – Bayesian Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Davor Kunovac

    (The Croatian National Bank, Croatia)

Abstract

This paper studies the Gibbs sampler developed in Rodriguez-Yam et al. (2004) that can be used to estimate the parameters of inequality constrained regression. The aim of the paper is twofold. First, to present an efficient estimation methodology that has not yet been utilised in credit risk literature, and second, by using this method to estimate a migration matrix governing the dynamics of loans to corporate sector in Croatia when only aggregate (supervisory) data on bank loans in every rating category is available. The results of the analysis suggest that the Bayesian estimator used in this paper has some important comparative advantages over the estimators previously used in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Davor Kunovac, 2011. "Estimating Credit Migration Matrices with Aggregate Data – Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 30, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    • Handle: RePEc:hnb:wpaper:30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hnb.hr/repec/hnb/wpaper/pdf/w-030.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis & McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul, 1996. "Simulation of multivariate normal rectangle probabilities and their derivatives theoretical and computational results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 85-134.
    3. Kelton, Christina M L, 1981. "Estimation of Time-Independent Markov Processes with Aggregate Data: A Comparison of Techniques," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 517-518, March.
    4. T. C. Lee & G. G. Judge & T. Takayama, 1965. "On Estimating the Transition Probabilities of a Markov Process," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 742-762.
    5. Mr. Matthew T Jones, 2005. "Estimating Markov Transition Matrices Using Proportions Data: An Application to Credit Risk," IMF Working Papers 2005/219, International Monetary Fund.
    6. MacRae, Elizabeth Chase, 1977. "Estimation of Time-Varying Markov Processes with Aggregate Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 183-198, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Pasanisi, Alberto & Fu, Shuai & Bousquet, Nicolas, 2012. "Estimating discrete Markov models from various incomplete data schemes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(9), pages 2609-2625.
    3. Legrand D. F. Saint-Cyr & Laurent Piet, 2017. "Movers and stayers in the farming sector: accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in structural change," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 777-795, August.
    4. Jacob Fiksel & Scott Zeger & Abhirup Datta, 2022. "A transformation‐free linear regression for compositional outcomes and predictors," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 974-987, September.
    5. Daniel Ackerberg, 2009. "A new use of importance sampling to reduce computational burden in simulation estimation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 343-376, December.
    6. Legrand D. F, Saint-Cyr, 2017. "Farm heterogeneity and agricultural policy impacts on size dynamics: evidence from France," Working Papers SMART 17-04, INRAE UMR SMART.
    7. Christina M. L. Kelton, 1984. "Nonstationary Markov Modeling: An Application to Wage-Influenced Industrial Relocation," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 9(1), pages 75-90, September.
    8. Karol Flisikowski & Dagmara Nikulin, 2015. "Workforce Mobility Against The Background Of Labour Market Duality Theory – The Example Of Selected Oecd Countries," GUT FME Conference Publications, in: Katarzyna Stankiewicz (ed.),Contemporary Issues and Challenges in Human Resource Management, chapter 2, pages 9-17, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.
    9. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F. & Piet, Laurent, 2014. "Movers and Stayers in the Farming Sector: Another Look at Heterogeneity in Structural Change," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183068, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Palm, F.C. & Sneek, J.M., 1981. "Some econometric applications of the exact distribution of the ratio of two quadratic forms in normal variates," Serie Research Memoranda 0018, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    11. Michael King, 2012. "The Unbanked Four-Fifths: Informality and Barriers to Financial Services in Nigeria," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp411, IIIS.
    12. James A. Chalfant & Richard S. Gray & Kenneth J. White, 1991. "Evaluating Prior Beliefs in a Demand System: The Case of Meat Demand in Canada," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(2), pages 476-490.
    13. Paleti, Rajesh, 2018. "Generalized multinomial probit Model: Accommodating constrained random parameters," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    14. Hajargasht, Gholamreza & Rao, D.S. Prasada, 2019. "Multilateral index number systems for international price comparisons: Properties, existence and uniqueness," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 36-47.
    15. Cranfield, John A.L. & Preckel, Paul V. & Liu, Songquan, 1997. "Approximating Bayesian Posteriors using Multivariate Gaussian Quadrature," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35791, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Yannis M. Ioannides & Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 2007. "Unemployment and liquidity constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 479-510.
    17. Haaijer, Marinus E., 1996. "Predictions in conjoint choice experiments : the x-factor probit model," Research Report 96B22, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    18. Ardia, David & Hoogerheide, Lennart F., 2010. "Efficient Bayesian estimation and combination of GARCH-type models," MPRA Paper 22919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2008. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 510-525.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit migration matrices; Bayesian inference; inequality constrained regression; truncated normal vector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hnb:wpaper:30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Romana Sinković (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hnb.hr .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.