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Using Kinked Budget Sets to Estimate Extensive Margin Responses: Method and Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test

Author

Listed:
  • Damon Jones

    (University of Chicago)

  • Alexander M. Gelber

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Daniel W. Sacks

    (Indiana University)

  • Jae Song

Abstract

We develop a method for estimating the effect of a kinked budget set on workers' employment decisions, and we use it to estimate the impact of the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Annual Earnings Test (AET). The AET reduces OASI claimants' current OASI benefits in proportion to their earnings in excess of an exempt amount. Using a Regression Kink Design and Social Security Administration data, we document that the discontinuous change in the benefit reduction rate at the exempt amount causes a corresponding change in the employment rate. We develop conditions in a general setting under which we can use such patterns to estimate the elasticity of the employment rate with respect to the effective average net-of-tax rate. Our resulting elasticity point estimate for the AET is at least 0.49, suggesting that the AET reduces employment by more than one percentage point in the group we study.

Suggested Citation

  • Damon Jones & Alexander M. Gelber & Daniel W. Sacks & Jae Song, 2017. "Using Kinked Budget Sets to Estimate Extensive Margin Responses: Method and Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test," Working Papers 2017-034, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:hka:wpaper:2017-034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Mark Borgschulte & Heepyung Cho, 2020. "Minimum Wages and Retirement," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 73(1), pages 153-177, January.
    9. Courtney Coile, 2018. "Working Longer in the U.S.: Trends and Explanations," NBER Working Papers 24576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Benjamin Schoefer, 2018. "Marginal Jobs and Job Surplus: Evidence from Separations and Unemployment Insurance," 2018 Meeting Papers 1309, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Courtney C. Coile, 2018. "Working Longer in the United States: Trends and Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Working Longer, pages 299-324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    social security; elasticity of employment rate; Annual Earnings Test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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