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Does the Open Limit Order Book Reveal Information About Short-run Stock Price Movements?

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Author Info
Hellström, Jörgen () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
Simonsen, Ola () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
Abstract

This paper empirically tests whether an open limit order book contains information about future short-run stock price movements. To account for the discrete nature of price changes, the integer-valued autoregressive model of order one is utilized. A model transformation has an advantage over conventional count data approaches since it handles negative integer-valued price changes. The empirical results reveal that measures capturing offered quantities of a share at the best bid- and ask-price reveal more information about future short-run price movements than measures capturing the quantities offered at prices below and above. Imbalance and changes in offered quantities at prices below and above the best bid- and ask-price do, however, have a small and significant effect on future price changes. The results also indicate that the value of order book information is short-term.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Umeå University, Department of Economics in its series Umeå Economic Studies with number 687.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 24 Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0687

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Postal: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: Negative integer-valued data; time series; INAR; finance; stock price; open limit order book;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kurt Brännäs & Jörgen Hellström, 2001. "Generalized Integer-Valued Autoregression," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 425-443. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, . "The Cost of Institutional Equity Trades," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 8-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    Other versions:
  3. Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Harris, Lawrence E. & Panchapagesan, Venkatesh, 2005. "The information content of the limit order book: evidence from NYSE specialist trading decisions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-67, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Roman Liesenfeld & Ingmar Nolte & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2006. "Modelling financial transaction price movements: a dynamic integer count data model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 795-825, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. repec:fth:pennfi:68 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. " Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ball, Clifford A, 1988. " Estimation Bias Induced by Discrete Security Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 841-65, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Nikolaus Hautsch & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Financial Transaction Data: Pitfalls and Opportunities," CoFE Discussion Paper 01-05, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  10. Seppi, Duane J, 1997. "Liquidity Provision with Limit Orders and a Strategic Specialist," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 103-50.
  11. Cho, David Chinhyung & Frees, Edward W, 1988. " Estimating the Volatility of Discrete Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 451-66, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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