Does the Open Limit Order Book Reveal Information About Short-run Stock Price Movements?
AbstractThis paper empirically tests whether an open limit order book contains information about future short-run stock price movements. To account for the discrete nature of price changes, the integer-valued autoregressive model of order one is utilized. A model transformation has an advantage over conventional count data approaches since it handles negative integer-valued price changes. The empirical results reveal that measures capturing offered quantities of a share at the best bid- and ask-price reveal more information about future short-run price movements than measures capturing the quantities offered at prices below and above. Imbalance and changes in offered quantities at prices below and above the best bid- and ask-price do, however, have a small and significant effect on future price changes. The results also indicate that the value of order book information is short-term.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Umeå University, Department of Economics in its series Umeå Economic Studies with number 687.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 24 Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Phone: 090 - 786 61 42
Fax: 090 - 77 23 02
Web page: http://www.econ.umu.se/
More information through EDIRC
Negative integer-valued data; time series; INAR; finance; stock price; open limit order book;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-FIN-2006-09-03 (Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, .
"The Cost of Institutional Equity Trades,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
8-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, . "The Cost of Institutional Equity Trades," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Harris, Lawrence E. & Panchapagesan, Venkatesh, 2005. "The information content of the limit order book: evidence from NYSE specialist trading decisions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-67, February.
- Cho, David Chinhyung & Frees, Edward W, 1988. " Estimating the Volatility of Discrete Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 451-66, June.
- repec:fth:pennfi:68 is not listed on IDEAS
- Seppi, Duane J, 1997. "Liquidity Provision with Limit Orders and a Strategic Specialist," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 103-50.
- Brännäs, Kurt & Hellström, Jörgen, 1999.
"Generalized Integer-Valued Autoregression,"
UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies
501, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
- Roman Liesenfeld & Ingmar Nolte & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2006. "Modelling financial transaction price movements: a dynamic integer count data model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 795-825, January.
- Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May.
- Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. " Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-61, September.
- Ball, Clifford A, 1988. " Estimation Bias Induced by Discrete Security Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 841-65, September.
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Financial Transaction Data: Pitfalls and Opportunities," CoFE Discussion Paper 01-05, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kjell-Göran Holmberg).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.