Evaluating Implied RNDs by some New Confidence Interval Estimation Techniques
AbstractThis paper evaluates the precision of the parametric double lognormal (DLN) and the nonparametric smoothing spline method (SPLINE) for estimating risk-neutral distributions (RNDs) from observed option prices. By using a bootstrap technique confidence bands are estimated for the riskneutral distributions (RNDs) and the width is used as the criterion when evaluating the precision of the two. Previous literature on estimating confidence bands has to a large extent been estimated by Monte Carlo methods. We argue that the bootstrap technique is to be preferred due to the non-normality of the error structure. Our findings favour the SPLINE method, yielding tighter confidence bands. An example showing how the confidence intervals could be used for practical purposes is also provided.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 146.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Banking & Finance, 2005, pages 1535-1557.
Implied risk-neutral distribution; confidence intervals; bootstrap;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-02-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2003-02-03 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-ETS-2003-02-03 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FMK-2003-02-03 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2003-02-03 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Melick, William R. & Thomas, Charles P., 1997. "Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 91-115, March.
- Ritchey, Robert J, 1990. "Call Option Valuation for Discrete Normal Mixtures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 13(4), pages 285-96, Winter.
- Robert R. Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2001. "Recovering risk aversion from options," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP-01-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
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