Contagion Effects in the Aftermath of Lehman's Collapse: Measuring the Collateral Damage
AbstractThe spectacular failure of the 150-year old investment bank Lehman Brothers on September 15th, 2008 was a major turning point in the global financial crisis that broke out in the summer 2007. Through the use of stock market data and Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads, this paper examines the investors' reaction to Lehman's collapse in an attempt to identify a contagion effect on the surviving financial institutions. The empirical analysis indicates that (i) the collateral damages were limited to the largest financial firms; (ii) the most affected institutions were the surviving "non-bank" financial services firms (mortgage and specialty finance, investment services, and diversified financial services firms); (iii) the negative effect was correlated with financial conditions of the surviving institutions. We also detect significant abnormal jumps in the CDS spreads after Lehman's failure that we interpret as evidence of sudden upward revisions in the market assessment of future default probabilities for the surviving financial firms.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00695721.
Date of creation: 09 May 2012
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00695721
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
systemic risk; financial crisis; bank failures; contagion; bailout; regulation; Credit Default Swap;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-05-22 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2012-05-22 (Central Banking)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Aharony, Joseph & Swary, Itzhak, 1996. "Additional evidence on the information-based contagion effects of bank failures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 57-69, January.
- Koehn, Michael & Santomero, Anthony M, 1980. " Regulation of Bank Capital and Portfolio Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1235-44, December.
- Blair, Roger D & Heggestad, Arnold A, 1978. "Bank Portfolio Regulation and the Probability of Bank Failure: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 88-93, February.
- Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
- Chitru S. Fernando & Anthony D. May & William L. Megginson, 2012. "The Value of Investment Banking Relationships: Evidence from the Collapse of Lehman Brothers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 235-270, 02.
- Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
- Adrian Pop & Diana Pop, 2009. "Requiem for Market Discipline and the Specter of TBTF in Japanese Banking," Working Papers hal-00419235, HAL.
- de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000.
"Systemic Risk: A Survey,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schwert, G William, 1981. "Using Financial Data to Measure Effects of Regulation," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(1), pages 121-58, April.
- Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 4250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
- Pop, Adrian & Pop, Diana, 2009. "Requiem for market discipline and the specter of TBTF in Japanese banking," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1429-1459, November.
- Cornell, Bradford & Shapiro, Alan C., 1986. "The reaction of bank stock prices to the international debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 55-73, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.