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Une évaluation macroéconomique et sectorielle de la fiscalité carbone en France

Author

Listed:
  • Gaël Callonnec

    (ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie)

  • Frédéric Reynés
  • Yasser Yeddir-Tamsamani

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Cet article évalue l'impact macroéconomique et sectoriel d'une taxe carbone en France en utilisant le modèle Three-ME qui combine deux caractéristiques importantes pour cette analyse. (1) Le modèle possède une structure sectorielle détaillée avec une fine description du système fiscal français, en particulier de la fiscalité appliquée à l'énergie. (2) Il a les principales propriétés des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne car il tient compte de la lenteur des processus d'ajustement des prix et des quantités. Les modèles d'équilibre général d'inspiration walrasienne mettent souvent en évidence les conséquences à long terme d'une taxe carbone sur l'économie mais ils négligent les effets à court et moyen terme notamment sur l'emploi et sur la compétitivité des entreprises. Or l'acceptabilité des réformes environnementales dépend souvent de leurs répercussions sur la sphère économique et sociale à court terme. Ayant des propriétés néokeynésiennes, Three-ME permet de mesurer ces répercussions. Nos résultats confirment sous certaines conditions la possibilité d'un double dividende économique et environnemental autant à court terme qu'à long terme. L'amélioration de la situation économique dépend néanmoins des mesures d'accompagnement mises en oeuvre telles que les exonérations et les modalités de redistribution de la taxe. Il apparaît aussi que ces mesures d'accompagnement réduisent sensiblement l'ampleur du dividende environnemental.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaël Callonnec & Frédéric Reynés & Yasser Yeddir-Tamsamani, 2012. "Une évaluation macroéconomique et sectorielle de la fiscalité carbone en France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03461335, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03461335
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.120.0121
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03461335
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicolas Piluso, 2023. "Why should the carbon tax be floating ?," Post-Print hal-04125654, HAL.

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