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Évaluation interdisciplinaire des impacts du CICE en matière d’emplois et de salaires

Author

Listed:
  • Clément Carbonnier

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Charlotte Foffano

    (Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Clément Malgouyres

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Loriane Py

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Camille Urvoy

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Le crédit d'impôt pour la compétitivité et l'emploi (CICE) a été institué avec l'objectif d'améliorer la compétitivité des entreprises. Pour étudier ses différents effets potentiels sur l'emploi et les salaires, l'évaluation présentée ici s'appuie d'une part sur une analyse économique, et d'autre part sur une étude sociologique, dont les résultats qualitatifs avaient été détaillés lors du rapport remis le 29 septembre 2016 par le LIEPP de Sciences Po à France Stratégie. L'analyse micro-économique basée sur les données fiscales et sociales des entreprises fait tout d'abord apparaître que, au niveau de l'emploi, les décisions des nouvelles embauches des entreprises n'ont pas été affectées par la présence de la nette discontinuité du CICE. De plus, comparativement aux entreprises moins intensément ciblées par la mesure, les entreprises les plus intensément ciblées par le CICE n'ont pas connu de hausse de l'emploi entre 2013 et 2015, et cela quelle que soit la catégorie socio-professionnelle. Concernant l'effet sur les salaires, notre analyse montre que la mesure n'a pas eu d'impact détectable sur la distribution des hausses de salaires mais il apparaît toutefois qu'au niveau de l'entreprise, les sommes allouées dans le cadre du CICE ont été en partie reversées aux salariés, sous forme de hausses de salaires, en particulier aux cadres, professions intellectuelles supérieures et professions intermédiaires. Il faut garder à l'esprit que les conclusions de cette évaluation ne portent que sur les trois premières années de mise en place du CICE, les données de 2016 et 2017 n'étant pas encore disponibles au moment de l'évaluation. Il convient enfin de préciser la difficulté de toute étude portant sur le CICE : celui-ci n'a pas été conçu de manière à être évalué par un dispositif expérimental.

Suggested Citation

  • Clément Carbonnier & Charlotte Foffano & Clément Malgouyres & Loriane Py & Camille Urvoy, 2018. "Évaluation interdisciplinaire des impacts du CICE en matière d’emplois et de salaires," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03393124, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03393124
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03393124
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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