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Are Policymakers Ambiguity Averse?

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  • Loïc Berger

    (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux], EIEE - European Institute on Economics and the Environment, CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna])

  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Bocconi University [Milan, Italy], EIEE - European Institute on Economics and the Environment, CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna])

Abstract

We investigate the ambiguity preferences of a unique sample of real-life policymakers at the Paris UN climate conference (COP21). We find that policymakers are generally ambiguity averse. Using a simple design, we are moreover able to show that these preferences are not necessarily due to an irrational behavior, but rather to intrinsic preferences over unknown probabilities. Exploring the heterogeneity within our sample, we also show that the country of origin and the degree of quantitative sophistication affect policymakers' attitudes towards compound risk, but not towards ambiguity. Robustness results are obtained in a lab experiment with a sample of university students.

Suggested Citation

  • Loïc Berger & Valentina Bosetti, 2020. "Are Policymakers Ambiguity Averse?," Post-Print hal-03027138, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03027138
    DOI: 10.1093/ej/uez051
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03027138
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Marinacci & Giulio Principi & Lorenzo Stanca, 2023. "Recursive Preferences and Ambiguity Attitudes," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 695 JEL Classification: C, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    2. Ilke AYDOGAN & Loïc BERGER & Valentina BOSETTI & Ning LIU, 2022. "Three layers of uncertainty," Working Papers 2022-iRisk-01, IESEG School of Management.
    3. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Ning Liu, 2022. "Three layers of uncertainty," Working Papers hal-03031751, HAL.
    4. Ilke AYDOGAN & Loïc BERGER & Valentina BOSETTI, 2023. "Unraveling Ambiguity Aversion," Working Papers 2023-iRisk-01, IESEG School of Management.
    5. repec:hal:journl:hal-03031751 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pablo Bra~nas-Garza & Antonio Cabrales & Mar'ia Paz Espinosa & Diego Jorrat, 2022. "The effect of ambiguity in strategic environments: an experiment," Papers 2209.11079, arXiv.org.
    7. Stan Olijslagers & Sweder Wijnbergen, 2024. "Discounting the Future: On Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein–Zin Preferences," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(3), pages 683-730, March.
    8. Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(3), pages 475-501, November.
    9. Wang, Jiarui & Liu, Shancun & Yang, Haijun, 2022. "Institutional investor’ proportions and inactive trading," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-04071242 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Valentina Bosetti, 2023. "Unraveling Ambiguity Aversion," Post-Print hal-04071242, HAL.
    12. Marinacci Massimo & Principi Giulio & Stanca Lorenzo, 2023. "Recursive Preferences and Ambiguity Attitudes," Working papers 082, Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    13. Massimo Marinacci & Giulio Principi & Lorenzo Stanca, 2023. "Recursive Preferences and Ambiguity Attitudes," Papers 2304.06830, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.

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    Keywords

    Ambiguity aversion; experiment; policymakers; compound lotteries; nonexpected utility; subjective probabilities;
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