IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01985256.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Lapse tables for lapse risk management in insurance: a competing risk approach

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Milhaud

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

  • Christophe Dutang

    (LMM - Laboratoire Manceau de Mathématiques - UM - Le Mans Université)

Abstract

This paper deals with the crucial problem of modeling policyholders' behaviours in life insurance. We focus here on the surrender behaviours and model the contract lifetime through the use of survival regression models. Standard models fail at giving acceptable forecasts for the timing of surrenders because of too much heterogeneity, whereas the competing risk framework provides interesting insights and more accurate predictions. Numerical results follow from using Fine & Gray model ([13]) on an insurance portfolio embedding Whole Life contracts. Through backtests, this framework reveals to be quite efficient and recovers the empirical lapse rate trajectory by aggregating individual predicted lifetimes. These results could be particularly useful to design future insurance product. Moreover, this setting allows to calibrate experimental lapse tables, simplifying the lapse risk management for operational teams.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Milhaud & Christophe Dutang, 2018. "Lapse tables for lapse risk management in insurance: a competing risk approach," Post-Print hal-01985256, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01985256
    DOI: 10.1007/s13385-018-0165-7
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01985256
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01985256/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13385-018-0165-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buchardt, Kristian, 2014. "Dependent interest and transition rates in life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 167-179.
    2. Outreville, J. Francois, 1990. "Whole-life insurance lapse rates and the emergency fund hypothesis," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 249-255, December.
    3. Bacinello, Anna Rita, 2005. "Endogenous model of surrender conditions in equity-linked life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 270-296, October.
    4. Weiyu Kuo & Chenghsien Tsai & Wei‐Kuang Chen, 2003. "An Empirical Study on the Lapse Rate: The Cointegration Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 489-508, September.
    5. Milhaud, Xavier, 2013. "Exogenous And Endogenous Risk Factors Management To Predict Surrender Behaviours," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 373-398, September.
    6. Anna Rita Bacinello, 2005. "Modelling the Surrender Conditions in Equity-Linked Life Insurance," CeRP Working Papers 39, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    7. David T. Russell & Stephen G. Fier & James M. Carson & Randy E. Dumm, 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Insurance Policy Surrender Activity," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 35-57.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Valla & Xavier Milhaud & Anani Ayodélé Olympio, 2023. "Including individual Customer Lifetime Value and competing risks in tree-based lapse management strategies," Post-Print hal-03903047, HAL.
    2. Abdul-Fatawu Majeed, 2020. "Accelerated Failure Time Models: An Application in Insurance Attrition [Modèles de temps de défaillance accéléré: une application dans l'attrition de l'assurance]," Post-Print hal-02953269, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xavier Milhaud & Christophe Dutang, 2018. "Lapse tables for lapse risk management in insurance: a competing risk approach," Post-Print hal-01727669, HAL.
    2. Nadine Gatzert & Gudrun Hoermann & Hato Schmeiser, 2009. "The Impact of the Secondary Market on Life Insurers’ Surrender Profits," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 887-908, December.
    3. Srbinoski Bojan & Strozzi Fernanda & Poposki Klime & Born Patricia H., 2020. "Trends in Life Insurance Demand and Lapse Literature," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-46, July.
    4. Barsotti, Flavia & Milhaud, Xavier & Salhi, Yahia, 2016. "Lapse risk in life insurance: Correlation and contagion effects among policyholders’ behaviors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 317-331.
    5. Martin Eling & Michael Kochanski, 2013. "Research on lapse in life insurance: what has been done and what needs to be done?," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 392-413, August.
    6. Gemmo, Irina & Götz, Martin, 2016. "Life insurance and demographic change: An empirical analysis of surrender decisions based on panel data," ICIR Working Paper Series 24/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    7. Yilmaz Yildiz & Mehmet Baha Karan & Seyma Bayrak Salantur, 2017. "An Investigation on Early Voluntary Withdrawals from Individual Retirement Accounts: An Empirical Study on an Emerging Market," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 42(4), pages 732-756, October.
    8. Berdin, Elia & Gründl, Helmut & Kubitza, Christian, 2017. "Rising interest rates, lapse risk, and the stability of life insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 29/17, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    9. Russo, Vincenzo & Giacometti, Rosella & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2017. "Intensity-based framework for surrender modeling in life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 189-196.
    10. Cassandra R. Cole & Stephen G. Fier, 2021. "An examination of life insurance policy surrender and loan activity," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 483-516, June.
    11. Christian Knoller & Gunther Kraut & Pascal Schoenmaekers, 2016. "On the Propensity to Surrender a Variable Annuity Contract: An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Policyholder Behavior," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(4), pages 979-1006, December.
    12. Lu Yu & Jiang Cheng & Tzuting Lin, 2019. "Life insurance lapse behaviour: evidence from China," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(4), pages 653-678, October.
    13. Gemmo, Irina & Götz, Martin, 2016. "Life insurance and demographic change: An empirical analysis of surrender decisions based on panel data," SAFE Working Paper Series 240, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    14. Mathias Valla & Xavier Milhaud & Anani Ayodélé Olympio, 2023. "Including individual Customer Lifetime Value and competing risks in tree-based lapse management strategies," Post-Print hal-03903047, HAL.
    15. Barsotti, Flavia & Milhaud, Xavier & Salhi, Yahia, 2016. "Lapse risk in life insurance: Correlation and contagion effects among policyholders’ behaviors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 317-331.
    16. Siti Nurasyikin Shamsuddin & Noriszura Ismail & Nur Firyal Roslan, 2022. "What We Know about Research on Life Insurance Lapse: A Bibliometric Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-19, May.
    17. Mathias Valla & Xavier Milhaud & Anani Ayodélé Olympio, 2023. "Including individual Customer Lifetime Value and competing risks in tree-based lapse management strategy," Working Papers hal-03903047, HAL.
    18. Feodoria, Mark & Förstemann, Till, 2015. "Lethal lapses: How a positive interest rate shock might stress German life insurers," Discussion Papers 12/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Marcos Escobar & Mikhail Krayzler & Franz Ramsauer & David Saunders & Rudi Zagst, 2016. "Incorporation of Stochastic Policyholder Behavior in Analytical Pricing of GMABs and GMDBs," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-36, November.
    20. Christian Hilpert & Jing Li & Alexander Szimayer, 2014. "The Effect of Secondary Markets on Equity-Linked Life Insurance With Surrender Guarantees," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(4), pages 943-968, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01985256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.