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Lapse risk in life insurance: Correlation and contagion effects among policyholders’ behaviors

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  • Barsotti, Flavia
  • Milhaud, Xavier
  • Salhi, Yahia

Abstract

The present paper proposes a new methodology to model the lapse risk in life insurance by integrating the dynamic aspects of policyholders’ behaviors and the dependency of the lapse intensity on macroeconomic conditions. Our approach, suitable to stable economic regimes as well as stress scenarios, introduces a mathematical framework where the lapse intensity follows a dynamic contagion process, see Dassios and Zhao (2011). This allows to capture both contagion and correlation potentially arising among insureds’ behaviors. In this framework, an external market driven jump component drives the lapse intensity process depending on the interest rate trajectory: when the spread between the market interest rates and the contractual crediting rate crosses a given threshold, the insurer is likely to experience more surrenders. A log-normal dynamic for the forward rates is introduced to build trajectories of an observable market variable and mimic the effect of a macroeconomic triggering event based on interest rates on the lapse intensity. Contrary to previous works, our shot-noise intensity is not constant and the resulting intensity process is not Markovian. Closed-form expressions and analytic sensitivities for the moments of the lapse intensity are provided, showing how lapses can be affected by massive copycat behaviors. Further analyses are then conducted to illustrate how the mean risk varies depending on the model’s parameters, while a simulation study compares our results with those obtained using standard practices. The numerical outputs highlight a potential misestimation of the expected number of lapses under extreme scenarios when using classical stress testing methodologies.

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  • Barsotti, Flavia & Milhaud, Xavier & Salhi, Yahia, 2016. "Lapse risk in life insurance: Correlation and contagion effects among policyholders’ behaviors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 317-331.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:71:y:2016:i:c:p:317-331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.09.008
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mark Kiermayer, 2021. "Modeling surrender risk in life insurance: theoretical and experimental insight," Papers 2101.11590, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    3. Berdin, Elia & Gründl, Helmut & Kubitza, Christian, 2017. "Rising interest rates, lapse risk, and the stability of life insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 29/17, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    4. Hainaut, Donatien, 2021. "Moment generating function of non-Markov self-excited claims processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 406-424.
    5. Hainaut, Donatien, 2021. "Moment generating function of non-Markov self-excited claims processes," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2021028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    6. Cheng, Chunli & Hilpert, Christian & Miri Lavasani, Aidin & Schaefer, Mick, 2023. "Surrender contagion in life insurance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1465-1479.
    7. Debbie Kusch Falden & Anna Kamille Nyegaard, 2021. "Retrospective Reserves and Bonus with Policyholder Behavior," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, January.
    8. Francesca Biagini & Tobias Huber & Johannes G. Jaspersen & Andrea Mazzon, 2021. "Estimating extreme cancellation rates in life insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 971-1000, December.
    9. Mrad, Fatma & Hamdi, Haykel & Naoui, Kamel & Abid, Ilyes, 2023. "The GMWB guarantee embedded in Life Insurance Contracts: Fair Value Pricing Problem," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Surrender; Dynamic Policyholders’ behavior; Dynamic contagion process; Hawkes process; Lapse risk; Stress tests; Contagion; Interest rates dynamic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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