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An Empirical Study on the Lapse Rate: The Cointegration Approach

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  • Weiyu Kuo
  • Chenghsien Tsai
  • Wei-Kuang Chen
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    Abstract

    We use the cointegration technique to reexamine the contending lapse rate hypotheses: the emergency fund hypothesis and the interest rate hypothesis. We find that the unemployment rate affects the lapse rate in both the long and short run, whereas the interest rate causes variations in the lapse rate mainly in the long run. This evidence seems to be in favor of the emergency fund hypothesis. However, according to the impulse response analysis of the estimated error-correction model, the interest rate overwhelms the unemployment rate on the overall impact on the dynamics of lapse rate. In other words, the interest rate hypothesis is favored against the emergency fund hypothesis in the sense that the interest rate is more economically significant than the unemployment rate in explaining the lapse rate dynamics. Copyright The Journal of Risk and Insurance.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by The American Risk and Insurance Association in its journal The Journal of Risk and Insurance.

    Volume (Year): 70 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 489-508

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:70:y:2003:i:3:p:489-508

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    Cited by:
    1. J. François Outreville, 2011. "The relationship between insurance growth and economic development - 80 empirical papers for a review of the literature," ICER Working Papers 12-2011, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    2. Christiansen, Marcus & Eling, Martin & Schmidt, Jan-Philipp & Zirkelbach, Lorenz, 2012. "Who is Changing Health Insurance Coverage? Empirical Evidence on Policyholder Dynamics," Working Papers on Finance 1223, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    3. Kochanski, Michael, 2010. "Solvency capital requirement for German unit-linked insurance products," German Risk and Insurance Review (GRIR), University of Cologne, Department of Risk Management and Insurance, vol. 6(2), pages 33-70.
    4. Martin Eling & Michael Kochanski, 2013. "Research on lapse in life insurance: what has been done and what needs to be done?," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 14(4), pages 392-413, July.
    5. De Giovanni, Domenico, 2007. "Lapse Rate Modeling: A Rational Expectation Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2007-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    6. Andrea Consiglio & Domenico De Giovanni, 2010. "Pricing the Option to Surrender in Incomplete Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 935-957.
    7. Martin Eling & Dieter Kiesenbauer, 2012. "Does Surplus Participation Reflect Market Discipline? An Analysis of the German Life Insurance Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 159-185, December.
    8. Lo, Chien-Ling & Lee, Jin-Ping & Yu, Min-Teh, 2013. "Valuation of insurers’ contingent capital with counterparty risk and price endogeneity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5025-5035.
    9. Christian Hilpert & Jing Li & Alexander Szimayer, 2011. "The Effect of Secondary Markets on Equity-Linked Life Insurance with Surrender Guarantees," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse11_2011, University of Bonn, Germany.

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