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An Empirical Analysis of Life Insurance Policy Surrender Activity

Author

Listed:
  • David T. Russell
  • Stephen G. Fier
  • James M. Carson
  • Randy E. Dumm

Abstract

We analyze life insurance policy surrender activity to determine whether surrender is a function of certain macroeconomic variables and, therefore, highly correlated across policies. Results support the Emergency Fund Hypothesis and the Interest Rate Hypothesis. In addition, we provide evidence that surrenders are significantly related to policy replacement activity, as in Outreville (1990), which we refer to as the Policy Replacement Hypothesis. The significant relationship between policy surrender and macroeconomic factors strongly supports insurer efforts to understand and actively manage disintermediation risk via insurance contract features and investment policy.

Suggested Citation

  • David T. Russell & Stephen G. Fier & James M. Carson & Randy E. Dumm, 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Insurance Policy Surrender Activity," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 35-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:wri:journl:v:36:y:2013:i:1:p:35-57
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. George Overton & Olivier de Bandt, 2020. "Why do insurers fail? A comparison of life and non-life insolvencies using a new international database," Working Papers hal-04159696, HAL.
    2. Kubitza, Christian & Grochola, Nicolaus & Gründl, Helmut, 2021. "Life insurance convexity," ICIR Working Paper Series 42/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    3. Fu-Wei Huang & Panpan Lin & Jyh-Horng Lin & Ching-Hui Chang, 2023. "The impact of war on insurer safety: a contingent claim model analysis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-6, December.
    4. Christian Knoller & Gunther Kraut & Pascal Schoenmaekers, 2016. "On the Propensity to Surrender a Variable Annuity Contract: An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Policyholder Behavior," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(4), pages 979-1006, December.
    5. Mathias Valla & Xavier Milhaud & Anani Ayodélé Olympio, 2023. "Including individual Customer Lifetime Value and competing risks in tree-based lapse management strategies," Post-Print hal-03903047, HAL.
    6. Srbinoski Bojan & Strozzi Fernanda & Poposki Klime & Born Patricia H., 2020. "Trends in Life Insurance Demand and Lapse Literature," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-46, July.
    7. Chen, Shi & Huang, Fu-Wei & Lin, Jyh-Horng, 2023. "Green technology choices under the cap-and-trade mechanism with insurer green finance in a dragon-king environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Feodoria, Mark & Förstemann, Till, 2015. "Lethal lapses: How a positive interest rate shock might stress German life insurers," Discussion Papers 12/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Olivier de Bandt & George Overton, 2022. "Why do insurers fail? A comparison of life and nonlife insurance companies from an international database," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(4), pages 871-905, December.
    10. Gemmo, Irina & Götz, Martin, 2016. "Life insurance and demographic change: An empirical analysis of surrender decisions based on panel data," ICIR Working Paper Series 24/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    11. Yilmaz Yildiz & Mehmet Baha Karan & Seyma Bayrak Salantur, 2017. "An Investigation on Early Voluntary Withdrawals from Individual Retirement Accounts: An Empirical Study on an Emerging Market," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 42(4), pages 732-756, October.
    12. Lee, Hangsuck & Choi, Hyung-Suk & Ha, Hongjun, 2020. "A sharing mechanism of investment outcome for interest-sensitive life insurance products," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Lu Yu & Jiang Cheng & Tzuting Lin, 2019. "Life insurance lapse behaviour: evidence from China," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(4), pages 653-678, October.
    14. Berdin, Elia & Gründl, Helmut & Kubitza, Christian, 2017. "Rising interest rates, lapse risk, and the stability of life insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 29/17, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    15. Siti Nurasyikin Shamsuddin & Noriszura Ismail & Nur Firyal Roslan, 2022. "What We Know about Research on Life Insurance Lapse: A Bibliometric Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-19, May.
    16. Xavier Milhaud & Christophe Dutang, 2018. "Lapse tables for lapse risk management in insurance: a competing risk approach," Post-Print hal-01727669, HAL.
    17. victor Lyonnet, 2018. "Asset-liability management in life insurance: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2018-12, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    18. Gemmo, Irina & Götz, Martin, 2016. "Life insurance and demographic change: An empirical analysis of surrender decisions based on panel data," SAFE Working Paper Series 240, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    19. Laszlo Szepesvary, 2022. "Effect of the Yield Level, the Inflation Environment and the Pandemic on the Lapse Rates of Life Insurances," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 21(3), pages 44-72.
    20. Xavier Milhaud & Christophe Dutang, 2018. "Lapse tables for lapse risk management in insurance: a competing risk approach," Post-Print hal-01985256, HAL.
    21. Mathias Valla & Xavier Milhaud & Anani Ayodélé Olympio, 2023. "Including individual Customer Lifetime Value and competing risks in tree-based lapse management strategy," Working Papers hal-03903047, HAL.
    22. Vidyavathi Kayarthakdka & Birau Ramona & Savita Sachin Rai & Rajeshwari Puttanna & Ninulescu Petre Valeriu, 2023. "Influence Of Demographic And Household Factors On Surrender Of Life Insurance Policies In India," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 5, pages 31-32, October.
    23. Cassandra R. Cole & Stephen G. Fier, 2021. "An examination of life insurance policy surrender and loan activity," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 483-516, June.

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