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Do investors care about credit ratings? An analysis through the cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Giuliano Iannotta
  • Giacomo Nocera

    (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School)

  • Andrea Resti

Abstract

We investigate how the credit cycle affects the link between bond spreads and credit ratings. Using a simple model of the credit assessment process, we show that when the debt market is more opaque, the information content of ratings deteriorates, creating an incentive for investors to increase the amount spent on private information. We test this hypothesis empirically. Results show that when market opaqueness (proxied by the spread between Aaa- and Baa-rated bonds) increases, the explanatory power of ratings and other control variables deteriorates as investors increasingly price in non-public information.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuliano Iannotta & Giacomo Nocera & Andrea Resti, 2013. "Do investors care about credit ratings? An analysis through the cycle," Post-Print hal-00994322, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00994322
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2012.11.006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Petrella & Andrea Resti, 2016. "An empirical analysis of Eurozone government bonds liquidity: Determinants, predictability and implications for the new bank prudential rules," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1645, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Fabrizio Crespi & Emanuela Giacomini & Danilo V. Mascia, 2019. "Bail‐in rules and the pricing of Italian bank bonds," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(5), pages 1321-1347, November.
    3. Ghosh, Saibal, 2019. "Loan delinquency in banking systems: How effective are credit reporting systems?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 220-236.
    4. Cioroianu, Iulia & Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2021. "The differential impact of corporate blockchain-development as conditioned by sentiment and financial desperation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Ahmed A. Elamer & Collins G. Ntim & Hussein A. Abdou & Andrews Owusu & Mohamed Elmagrhi & Awad Elsayed Awad Ibrahim, 2021. "Are bank risk disclosures informative? Evidence from debt markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1270-1298, January.
    6. Petrella, Giovanni & Resti, Andrea, 2017. "What drives the liquidity of sovereign bonds when markets are under stress? An assessment of the new Basel 3 rules on bank liquid assets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 297-310.
    7. Agnese, Paolo & Giacomini, Emanuela, 2023. "Bank's funding costs: Do ESG factors really matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. G. Marandola & R. Mossucca, 2016. "When did the stock market start to react less to downgrades by Moody s, S&P and Fitch?," Working Papers wp1066, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    9. Quentin Bro de Comères, 2022. "Predicting European Banks Distress Events: Do Financial Information Producers Matter?," Working Papers hal-03752678, HAL.
    10. Ghosh, Saibal, 2018. "Bad luck, Bad policy or Bad banking? Understanding the financial management behavior of MENA banks," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 110-128.
    11. Themistokles Lazarides & Evaggelos Drimpetas, 2016. "Defining the factors of Fitch rankings in the European banking sector," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 315-339, August.
    12. Patrycja Chodnicka Jaworska, "undated". "Prediction Of Banking Sector Condition," Review of Socio - Economic Perspectives 201703, Reviewsep.
    13. Afik, Zvika & Feinstein, Itai & Galil, Koresh, 2014. "The (un)informative value of credit rating announcements in small markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 66-80.
    14. Bedendo, Mascia & Cathcart, Lara & El-Jahel, Lina, 2018. "Reputational shocks and the information content of credit ratings," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 44-60.
    15. Ginevra Marandola & Rossella Mossucca, 2021. "When did the stock market start to react less to downgrades by Moody’s, S&P and Fitch?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 1-45, February.
    16. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2021. "Market expectations and the impact of credit rating on the IPOs of U.S. banks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 587-610.

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