Mankiw's Puzzle on Consumer Durables: A Misspecification
AbstractMankiw (1982) shows that consumer durables expenditures should follow a linear ARMA(1,1) process, but the data analyzed supports an AR(1) process instead; thus, a puzzle. In this paper, we employ a more general utility function than Mankiw's quadratic one. Further, the disturbance and depreciation rate are respecified, respectively, as multiplicative and stochastic. The analytical consequence is a nonlinear ARMA(infinity,1) process, which implies that the linear ARMA(1,1) is a misspecification. A historical data analysis appears to support the nonlinear model. Since actual data are influenced by historical events, we also carry out a Monte Carlo study to strengthen our point
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 200515.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
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- Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985.
"Consumer Durables and the Real Interest Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
1148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:fth:coluec:444 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1982. "Hall's consumption hypothesis and durable goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 417-425.
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