Regional Analysis of Eastern Province Feeder Road Project - District level estimation of the Poverty Alleviation Effects of Rural Roads Improvements in Zambia’s Eastern Province
AbstractRemarkably little is known about the long-term impacts of project aid to lagging poor areas (Chen, Mu et al. 2006, 2008). This paper contributes to the debate about the role of rural transport infrastructure development in explaining the long-term rural development. In line with Grimm and Klasen (2008) we agree that there is value-added to consider this debate at the micro level within a country as particularly questions of parameter heterogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity are likely to be smaller than between countries. Moreover, at the micro level it is possible to identify more precise transmission mechanisms from rural transport infrastructure to socio-economic development outcomes. This is done empirically by analyzing a UNDP&UNCDF financed rural development project in Zambia’s Eastern Province running from 1997-2002. The secondary datasets consist of respectively a series of repeated cross-sectional living conditions monitoring surveys (LCMSs). The LCMSs were collected in 1998 (baseline) and 2004 (follow-up), that is both prior, during and after the project implementation. Our aim is to assess the ability of the parametric and semi-parametric models as well as using a time- series of cross-sections to provide an adequate description of the logarithm of per adult equivalent consumption of rural household conditional on few covariates, including an infrastructure treatment dummy variable. Although, the mean cotton sales share of household income has more than doubled despite the fact that the mean distance to the input market remained unchanged from 1998 to 2004, the parametric and semi-parametric estimation results are only small and statistically insignificant in terms of gains to mean consumption emerged in the longer-term. The main results are robust to corrections for various sources of selection bias.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies in its series IHEID Working Papers with number 10-2012.
Length: 71 pages
Date of creation: 06 Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Parametric and Semi-parametric Regression Models; Time-series Model from Successive cross sections; Cohort Data; Poverty Measures; poor rural area development projects; feeder roads; household surveys; impact evaluation; Zambia.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
- O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
- Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2012-07-23 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-PPM-2012-07-23 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
- NEP-TRE-2012-07-23 (Transport Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
- L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
- Jayne, Thomas S., 2000. "Improving Smallholder and Agri-Business Opportunities in Zambia’s Cotton Sector: Key Challenges and Options," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 54456, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
- Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, April.
- Stefan Dercon, 2007.
"The impact of roads and agricultural extension on consumption growth and poverty in fifteen Ethiopian villages,"
Economics Series Working Papers
WPS/2007-01, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Stefan Dercon & Daniel O. Gilligan & John Hoddinott & Tassew Woldehanna, 2007. "The impact of roads and agricultural extension on consumption growth and poverty in fifteen Ethiopian villages," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-01, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- L. Alan Winters, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(9), pages 1339-1367, 09.
- Kenneth I. Wolpin & Mark R. Rosenzweig, 2000. "Natural "Natural Experiments" in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 827-874, December.
- Irene Brambilla & Guido G. Porto, 2011.
"Market structure, outgrower contracts, and farm output. Evidence from cotton reforms in Zambia,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 740-766, December.
- Irene Brambilla & Guido Porto, 2005. "Market Structure, Outgrower contracs and Farm Output. Evidence from Cotton Reforms in Zambia," NBER Working Papers 11804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mu, Ren & van de Walle, Dominique, 2007. "Rural roads and poor area development in Vietnam," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4340, The World Bank.
- He, Xuming & Fung, Wing K. & Zhu, Zhongyi, 2005. "Robust Estimation in Generalized Partial Linear Models for Clustered Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1176-1184, December.
- Adonis Yatchew, 1998. "Nonparametric Regression Techniques in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 669-721, June.
- Dercon, Stefan & Hoddinott, John, 2005. "Livelihoods, growth, and links to market towns in 15 Ethiopian villages," FCND discussion papers 194, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Joseph Hilbe, 1993. "Generalized linear models," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(11).
- Balat, Jorge F. & Porto, Guido G., 2005. "The WTO Doha Round, cotton sector dynamics, and poverty trends in Zambia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3697, The World Bank.
- Jorge F. Balat & Guido Porto, 2005. "Globalization and Complementary Policies: Poverty Impacts in Rural Zambia," NBER Working Papers 11175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christian K.M. Kingombe, 2012. "The Linkage between Outcome Differences in Cotton Production and Rural Roads Improvements - A Matching Approach," IHEID Working Papers 12-2012, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Johannes Eugster).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.