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Equity, Bonds, Growth And Inflation In A Quadratic Infinite Horizon Economy

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Michael Magill
Martine Quinzii

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Abstract

This paper exhibits a class of infinite-horizon economies with incomplete markets (GEI) for which the equilibrium can be explicitly derived. We show that if agents have preference orderings represented by expected discounted quadratic utilities and if their endowments are tradable, then the equilibrium consumption and welfare of agents can be expressed as a function of the least variable income stream (LVI) obtainable by trading on the financial markets. If in addition the economy has a Markov structure, then the LVI can be calculated. The model is used to study the behavior of agents on the equity and bond markets in an economy in which the growth and inflation processes are calibrated to fit US data. Two related findings emerge: first, the proportion of bonds in the portfolios of even the most risk-averse agents is small (less than 2%); second, since equity dominates the portfolios of agents, the welfare loss due to variable inflation is small.

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Paper provided by California Davis - Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics with number 98-08.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:caldec:98-08

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Postal: University of California Davis - Department of Economics. One Shields Ave., California 95616-8578
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  1. Yaari, Menahem E., 1976. "A law of large numbers in the theory of consumer's choice under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 202-217, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "The optimum quantity of money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1067-1152 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 1997. "Which improves welfare more: A nominal or an indexed bond?," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-37. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
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  6. Telmer, Chris I, 1993. " Asset-Pricing Puzzles and Incomplete Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1803-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1998. "Inflation-stabilization risk in economies with incomplete asset markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 371-391, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 1996. "Incomplete markets over an infinite horizon: Long-lived securities and speculative bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 133-170. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Schechtman, Jack, 1976. "An income fluctuation problem," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 218-241, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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