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Least Squares Predictions and Mean-Variance Analysis

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Author Info
Enrique Sentana ()
Enrique Sentana

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Abstract

We compare the Sharpe rations of investment funds which combine one riskless and one risky asset following: i) timing strategies which forecast excess returns using simple regressions; ii) a strategy which uses multiple regression instead; and iii) a passive allocation which combines the funds in i) with constant weightings. We show that iii) dominates i) and ii), as it implicitly uses the linear forecasting rule that maximizes the Sharpe ratio of actively traded portfolios, but the relative ranking of i) and ii) is generally unclear. We also discuss under what circumstances the performance of ii) and iii) coincides.

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Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp312.

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Date of creation: Jan 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp312

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  3. Arellano, Manuel, 1989. "On the efficient estimation of simultaneous equations with covariance restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 247-265, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Chen, Zhiwu & Knez, Peter J, 1996. "Portfolio Performance Measurement: Theory and Applications," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 511-55. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Admati, Anat R & Pfleiderer, Paul, 1990. "Direct and Indirect Sale of Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 901-28, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Allan Timmermann & Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 234, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Francisco Peñaranda & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Spanning Tests In Return And Stochastic Discount Factor Mean-Variance Frontiers: A Unifying Approach," Working Papers wp2004_0410, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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