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Defining and improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts : contributions from a VAR model

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  • William M. Lupoletti
  • Roy H. Webb
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    Abstract

    Thirty years ago it appeared that the best strategy for improving economic forecasts was to build bigger, more detailed models. As the costs of computing plummeted, considerable detail was added to models and more elaborate statistical techniques became feasible.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 84-06.

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    Date of creation: 1984
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    Publication status: Published in Journal of Business, April 1986, v, 59, no. 2, pp. 263-85.
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:84-06

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    Related research

    Keywords: Macroeconomics;

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    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    2. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Specifying vector autoregressions for macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Report 92, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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