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Defining and improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts : contributions from a VAR model

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  • William M. Lupoletti
  • Roy H. Webb

Abstract

Thirty years ago it appeared that the best strategy for improving economic forecasts was to build bigger, more detailed models. As the costs of computing plummeted, considerable detail was added to models and more elaborate statistical techniques became feasible.

Suggested Citation

  • William M. Lupoletti & Roy H. Webb, 1984. "Defining and improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts : contributions from a VAR model," Working Paper 84-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:84-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
    2. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    4. Roy H. Webb, 1984. "Vector autoregressions as a tool for forecast evaluations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 70(Jan), pages 3-11.
    5. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Specifying vector autoregressions for macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Report 92, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

    Macroeconomics;

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