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Recovering risky technologies using the almost ideal demand system: an application to U.S. banking

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Author Info
Joseph P. Hughes
William W. Lang
Loretta J. Mester
Choon-Geol Moon

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Abstract

Using modern duality theory to recover technologies from data can be complicated by the risk characteristics of production. In many industries, risk influences cost and revenue and can create the potential for costly episodes of financial distress. When risk is an important consideration in production, the standard cost and profit functions may not adequately describe the firm's technology and choice of production plan. In general, standard models fail to account for risk and its endogeneity. The authors distinguish between exogenous risk, which varies over the firm's choice sets, and endogenous risk, which is chosen by the firm in conjunction with its production decision. They show that, when risk matters in production decisions, it is important to account for risk's endogeneity. ; For example, better risk diversification that results, for example, from an increase in scale, improves the reward to risk-taking and may under certain conditions induce the firm to take on more risk to increase the firm's value. A choice of higher risk at a larger scale could add to costs and mask scale economies that may result from better diversification. ; This paper introduces risk into the dual model of production by constructing a utility-maximizing model in which managers choose their most preferred production plan. The authors show that the utility function that ranks production plans is equivalent to a ranking of subjective probability distributions of profit that are conditional on the production plan. The most preferred production plan results from the firm's choice of an optimal profit distribution. The model is sufficiently general to incorporate risk aversion as well as risk neutrality. Hence, it can account for the case where the potential for costly financial distress makes trading profit for reduced risk a value-maximizing strategy. ; The authors implement the model using the Almost Ideal Demand System to derive utility-maximizing share equations for profit and inputs, given the output vector and given sources of risk to control for choices that would affect endogenous risk. The most preferred cost function is obtained from the profit share equation and we show that, if risk neutrality is imposed, this system is identical to the standard translog cost system except that it controls for sources of risk. ; The authors apply the model to the U.S. banking industry using 1989-90 data on banks with over $1 billion in assets. The authors find evidence that managers trade return for reduced risk, which is consistent with the significant regulatory and financial costs of bank distress. In addition, the authors find evidence of significant scale economies that help explain the recent wave of large bank mergers. Using these same data, the authors also estimate the standard cost function, which does not explicitly account for risk, and they obtain the usual results of esentially constant returns to scale, which contradicts the often-stated rationale for bank mergers.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 97-8.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:97-8

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Keywords: Banks and banking ; Economies of scale;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hughes, Joseph P, et al, 1996. "Efficient Banking under Interstate Branching," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 1045-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Allen N. Berger & Loretta J. Mester, 1997. "Inside the Black Box: What Explains Differences in the Efficiencies of Financial Institutions?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-04, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Joseph P. Hughes & William W. Lang & Loretta J. Mester, 1995. "Recovering technologies that account for generalized managerial preferences: an application to non-risk neutral banks," Working Papers 95-8/R, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  4. Rebecca S. Demsetz & Marc R. Saidenberg & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "Banks with something to lose: the disciplinary role of franchise value," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
  5. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester & Moon Choo-Geol, 2000. "Are scale economies in banking elusive or illusive? evidence obtained by incorporating capital structure and risk-taking into models of bank production," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 233-264.
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  6. Joseph Hughes, 1999. "Incorporating risk into the analysis of production," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(1), pages 1-23, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Calomiris, Charles W & Kahn, Charles M, 1991. "The Role of Demandable Debt in Structuring Optimal Banking Arrangements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 497-513, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gorton, Gary & Rosen, Richard, 1995. " Corporate Control, Portfolio Choice, and the Decline of Banking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1377-1420, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Saunders, Anthony & Strock, Elizabeth & Travlos, Nickolaos G, 1990. " Ownership Structure, Deregulation, and Bank Risk Taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Humphrey, David B & Pulley, Lawrence B, 1997. "Banks' Responses to Deregulation: Profits, Technology, and Efficiency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 73-93, February.
  12. Joseph P. Hughes & William W. Lang & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 1996. "Efficient banking under interstate branching," Working Papers 96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hughes, Joseph P. & Lang, William W. & Mester, Loretta J. & Moon, Choon-Geol, 1999. "The dollars and sense of bank consolidation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 291-324, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester, . "A Quality and Risk-Adjusted Cost Function for Banks: Evidence on the "Too-Big-To-Fail" Doctrine," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 25-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  16. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 2000. "Are Scale Economies in Banking Elusive or Illusive?," Departmental Working Papers 200004, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Tufano, Peter, 1996. " Who Manages Risk? An Empirical Examination of Risk Management Practices in the Gold Mining Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1097-1137, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Allen N. Berger & Loretta J. Mester, 2001. "Explaining the Dramatic Changes in Performance of U.S. Banks: Technological Change, Deregulation and Dynamic Changes in Competition," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-22, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Robert DeYoung, 2001. "Learning-by-doing, scale efficiencies, and financial performance at Internet-only banks," Working Paper Series WP-01-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  3. Biaggio Bossone & Jong-Kun Lee, 2002. "In Finance, Size Matters," IMF Working Papers 02/113, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Koetter, 2004. "The Stability of Efficiency Rankings when Risk-Preferences are different," Working Papers 04-08, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Armah, Bernard & Park, Timothy A., 1998. "Agricultural Bank Efficiency And The Role Of Managerial Risk Preferences," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20909, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  6. Koetter, Michael, 2006. "The stability of efficiency rankings when risk-preferences and objectives are different," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Allen N. Berger & Loretta J. Mester, 1999. "What explains the dramatic changes in cost and profit performance of the U.S. banking industry?," Working Papers 99-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Robert DeYoung, 2001. "Learning-by-doing, scale efficiencies, and financial performance at Internet-only banks," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 315-327.
  9. Jacob Bikker & Jaap Bos, 2004. "Trends in Competition and Profitability in the Banking Industry: A Basic Framework," DNB Working Papers 018, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Robert DeYoung & William C. Hunter, 2001. "Deregulation, the Internet, and the competitive viability of large banks and community banks," Working Paper Series WP-01-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  11. Joseph P. Hughes & Choon-Geol Moon, 2004. "Estimating managers' utility-maximizing demand for agency goods," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 320-352. [Downloadable!]
  12. Joseph P. Hughes & William W. Lang & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon & Michael S. Pagano, 2002. "Do Bankers Sacrifice Value to Build Empires? Managerial Incentives, Industry Consolidation and Financial Performance," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-18, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2008. "The implications of latent technology regimes for competition and efficiency in banking," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  14. Martin Desrochers & Mario Lamberte, 2003. "Efficiency and Expense Preference in Philippines' Cooperative Rural Banks," Cahiers de recherche 0321, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  15. Allen N. Berger & Astrid A. Dick, 2004. "Entry into banking markets and the first-mover advantage," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 243-254. [Downloadable!]
  16. Loretta J. Mester, 2003. "Applying efficiency measurement techniques to central banks," Working Papers 03-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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