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Incumbency Disadvantage in U.S. National Politics

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  • Satyajit Chatterjee
  • Burcu Eyigungor

Abstract

We document that postwar U.S. national elections show a strong pattern of ?incumbency disadvantage?: If the presidency has been held by a party for some time, that party tends to lose seats in Congress. A model of partisan politics with policy inertia and elections is presented to explain this finding. We also find that the incumbency disadvantage comes sooner for Democrats than Republicans. Based on the observed Democratic bias in Congress (Democrats, on average, hold more seats in the House and Senate than Republicans), the model also offers an explanation for the second finding.

Suggested Citation

  • Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2017. "Incumbency Disadvantage in U.S. National Politics," Working Papers 16-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:16-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2012. "Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2674-2699, October.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(3), pages 403-414.
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    Keywords

    rational partisan model; incumbency disadvantage; policy inertia; political disagreement model; partisan politics;
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