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Retail inventories, internal finance, and aggregate fluctuations

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  • Egon Zakrajsek

Abstract

We investigate the implications of capital market imperfections for inventory investment in retail trade, using a new source firm-level data--the micro data underlying the published Quarterly Financial Reports. An error-correction model that includes internal funds and forward-looking expectations for the stochastic process of sales is not rejected by the data. Both the cross-sectional and time-series results are consistent with the existence of significant capital market frictions in the retail trade sector: (1) for firms with limited access to capital markets, internal funds are a significant predictor of inventory investment; (2) the predictive power of internal funds is highly asymmetric over a business cycle, rising considerably in recessions. The quantitative significance of financial factors suggests that a large portion of the observed volatility in aggregate retail inventory investment over a business cycle is due to fluctuations in internal funds

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9722.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9722

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Keywords: Retail trade ; Inventories ; Business cycles ; Capital market;

References

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  1. Scott Schuh, 1996. "Evidence on the link between firm-level and aggregate inventory behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  3. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1995. "Is bank lending important for the transmission of monetary policy: an overview," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 39, pages 1-14.
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  8. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
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  13. Smith, Janet Kiholm, 1987. " Trade Credit and Informational Asymmetry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 863-72, September.
  14. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory (Dis)Investment, Internal Finance Fluctuations, and the Business Cycle," Macroeconomics 9401001, EconWPA.
  15. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  16. P.A. Tinsley, 1971. "On ramps, turnpikes, and distributed lag approximations of optimal intertemporal adjustment," Special Studies Papers 15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory Investment, Internal-Finance Fluctuation, and the Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 75-138.
  18. Michael C. Lovell, 1959. "Manufacturers' Inventories, Sales Expectations, and the Acceleration Principle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 86, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Mosser, Patricia C, 1991. "Trade Inventories and (S, s)," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1267-86, November.
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  21. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S145-59, Supplemen.
  22. Mian, Shehzad L & Smith, Clifford W, Jr, 1992. " Accounts Receivable Management Policy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 169-200, March.
  23. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista & Julio R. Escandon, 2003. "A Simple Dynamic Model of Credit and Aggregate Demand," Macroeconomics 0308001, EconWPA.
  2. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1995. "Three Financing Constraint Hypotheses and Inventory Investment: New Tests With Time and Sectoral Heterogeneity," Macroeconomics 9510001, EconWPA, revised 09 Oct 1995.
  3. Rose Cunningham, 2004. "Finance Constraints and Inventory Investment: Empirical Tests with Panel Data," Macroeconomics 0411015, EconWPA.
  4. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajsek, 1998. "Microeconomic inventory adjustment and aggregate dynamics," Staff Reports 54, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Rose Cunningham, 2004. "Finance Constraints and Inventory Investment: Empirical Tests with Panel Data," Working Papers 04-38, Bank of Canada.
  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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