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Temporary price changes and the real effects of monetary policy

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Patrick J. Kehoe
Virgiliu Midrigan

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Abstract

In the data, a large fraction of price changes are temporary. We provide a simple menu cost model which explicitly includes a motive for temporary price changes. We show that this simple model can account for the main regularities concerning temporary and permanent price changes. We use the model as a benchmark to evaluate existing shortcuts that do not explicitly model temporary price changes. One shortcut is to take the temporary changes out of the data and fit a simple Calvo model to it. If we do so prices change only every 50 weeks and the Calvo model overestimates the real effects of monetary shocks by almost 70%. A second shortcut is to leave the temporary changes in the data. If we do so prices change every 3 weeks and the Calvo model produces only 1/9 of the real effects of money as in our benchmark. We show that a simple Calvo model can generate the same real effects as our benchmark model if we set parameters so that prices change every 17 weeks.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Working Papers with number 661.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:661

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Keywords: Prices;

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  1. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
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  2. Judith A. Chevalier & Anil K Kashyap & Peter E. Rossi, 2003. "Why Don't Prices Rise During Periods of Peak Demand? Evidence from Scanner Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 15-37, March. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Sam Peltzman, 2000. "Prices Rise Faster than They Fall," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 466-502, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mikhail Golosov & Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2007. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 171-199. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sobel, Joel, 1984. "The Timing of Sales," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 353-68, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2007. "Menu Costs, Multi-Product Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/13, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Mark Gertler & John Leahy, 2008. "A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 533-572, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 2007. "Price Stickiness in Ss Models: New Interpretations of Old Results," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000856, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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