IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/94809.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labor Force Exiters around Recessions: Who Are They?

Author

Listed:
  • Victoria Gregory

Abstract

This paper identifies workers who experience a job separation during a recession and tracks their labor force status in the following year using the Current Population Survey. Workers are classified as exiters if they leave the labor force shortly after their job loss and non-exiters if they do not. The pool of exiters is disproportionately female, less-educated, and older. During the pandemic recession, there were even more older workers in the exiters pool, although they were less likely to report being retired compared to in the Great Recession. In addition, statuses were more persistent during the Great Recession: for both exiters and non-exiters the majority were in the same labor force status a year later. I then use the patterns of these samples of job-separators to estimate the propensity of being re-employed in a year and apply the estimates to the general out-of-work pools during the two recessions. I find that changes in the likelihood of being re-employed as well as the composition of individuals out of work are important for understanding the differences between the labor market in the two recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Victoria Gregory, 2022. "Labor Force Exiters around Recessions: Who Are They?," Working Papers 2022-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:94809
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2022.027
    Note: Publisher DOI: https://doi.org/10.20955/r.105.9-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2022/2022-027.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20955/wp.2022.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    2. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel & Coglianese, John, 2021. "Projecting unemployment durations: A factor-flows simulation approach with application to the COVID-19 recession," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2019. "Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 25625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guido Matias Cortes & Eliza Forsythe, 2023. "Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(1), pages 30-55, January.
    5. Eliza Forsythe & Lisa B. Kahn & Fabian Lange & David G. Wiczer, 2020. "Searching, Recalls, and Tightness: An Interim Report on the COVID Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 28083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Samuel Jordan-Wood, 2024. "Pandemic Labor Force Participation and Net Worth Fluctuations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 106(1), pages 40-58, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The unemployed with jobs and without jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Launov, Andrey & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2021. "The fall in german unemployment: A flow analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Hie Joo Ahn & James Hamilton, 2022. "Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 1-32, April.
    4. Hie Joo Ahn & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered," NBER Working Papers 31241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2022. "Where have all the workers gone? Recalls, retirements, and reallocation in the COVID recovery," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Pizzinelli, Carlo & Shibata, Ippei, 2023. "Has COVID-19 induced labor market mismatch? Evidence from the US and the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Peter Ganong & Fiona Greig & Max Liebeskind & Pascal Noel & Daniel Sullivan & Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data," Working Papers 2021-19, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    8. D’Amuri, Francesco & De Philippis, Marta & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Lo Bello, Salvatore, 2022. "Slack and prices during Covid-19: Accounting for labor market participation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Mueller, Andreas I. & Spinnewijn, Johannes, 2023. "The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment: Predictability, Heterogeneity and Selection," IZA Discussion Papers 15955, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Gros, Daniel & Ounnas, Alexandre, 2021. "Labour market responses to the Covid-19 crisis in the United States and Europe," CEPS Papers 32985, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    11. Hie Joo Ahn & James Hamilton, 2022. "Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 1-32, April.
    12. Eliza Forsythe & Lisa B. Kahn & Fabian Lange & David G. Wiczer, 2020. "Searching, Recalls, and Tightness: An Interim Report on the COVID Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 28083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Isabel Cairó & Shigeru Fujita & Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2020. "The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor Supply Elasticities and Wage Rigidity," Working Papers 20-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    14. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    15. Chassamboulli, Andri & Fontaine, Idriss & Gomes, Pedro, 2020. "How important are worker gross flows between public and private sector?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    16. Michael W. L. Elsby & Jennifer C. Smith & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2021. "Population growth, immigration and labour market dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1814, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Bo E. Honoré & Luojia Hu, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic and Asian American employment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2053-2083, May.
    18. Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel & Lalé, Etienne, 2020. "The ins and outs of involuntary part-time employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Pizzinelli, Carlo & Speigner, Bradley, 2017. "Matching efficiency and labour market heterogeneity in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 667, Bank of England.
    20. Sniekers, F.J.T., 2013. "Endogenous Beveridge cycles and the volatility of unemployment," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    job separations; recessions; labor force; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:94809. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.