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Disintegration

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  • Simeon Djankov
  • Caroline Freund

Abstract

We study the effects of trade barriers and the persistence of past linkages on trade flows in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Estimating gravity equations on 1987-1996 trade among and between nine Russian regions and fourteen FSU republics, we find that Russian regions traded 60 percent more with each other than with republics in the reform period (1994-96). In contrast, they did not trade significantly more with each other than with republics in the pre-reform period (1987-90). Estimating a richer model, we find that trade barriers are primarily responsible for the current domestic bias. However, the existing infrastructure stock has significantly limited the recent reorientation in trade. Finally, we find evidence of anticipatory adjustment during the transition to independence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 618.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:618

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Keywords: International trade;

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  1. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  3. Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Hysteresis In Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," NBER Working Papers 2545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Do National Borders Matter for Quebec's Trade?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 507-22, August.
  5. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1994. "How Wide is the Border?," NBER Working Papers 4829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June.
  8. Blanchard, Olivier & Kremer, Michael R., 1997. "Disorganization," Scholarly Articles 3659691, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1998. "The Regionalization of the World Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran98-1.
  10. Hummels, D. & Levinsohn, J., 1993. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," Working Papers 339, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  11. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1996. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Working Papers 5565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  13. Caroline L. Freund, 1998. "Regionalism and permanent diversion," International Finance Discussion Papers 602, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September.
  16. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Disintegration and trade," ZEI Working Papers B 24-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  2. Yener Kandogan, 1999. "Lingering effects of central planning on trade? Evidence from current CIS trade patterns," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 501-521, September.
  3. Richard Pomfret, 2006. "Coordinating Aid for Regional Cooperation Projects: The Experience of Central Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp163, IIIS.
  4. Pauline Grosjean & Claudia Senik, 2007. "Should market liberalisation precede democracy? Causal relations between political preferences and development," Working Papers 103, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  5. Richard Pomfret, 2004. "Trade Policies in Central Asia after EU Enlargement and before Russian WTO Accession: Regionalism and Integration into the World Economy," School of Economics Working Papers 2004-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  6. Claus-Friedrich Laaser & Klaus Schrader, 2002. "European Integration and Changing Trade Patterns: The Case of the Baltic States," Kiel Working Papers 1088, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Tiiu Paas & Egle Tafenau, 2004. "The Baltic Sea Region’s Role in Trade Integration," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, in: Modelling the Economies of the Baltic Sea Region, volume 17, chapter 3, pages 92-115 Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
  8. Yener Kandogan, 2006. "Falling Walls and Lifting Curtains: Analysis of Border Effects in Transition Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 821, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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