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A forward-looking multicountry model: MX3

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  • Joseph E. Gagnon

Abstract

This is paper discusses the theoretical structure and empirical properties of MX3, a multicountry macroeconometric model with rational expectations. MX3 is a medium-sized quarterly model of the United States, Japan, and West Germany. The primary objective of the model is to analyze the effect of fiscal and monetary rules on national economies in an international context. By incorporating rational expectations into almost all of the model's behavioral equations, MX3 takes a large step toward addressing the "Lucas critique" of model-based policy analysis.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1989/359/ifdp359.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 359.

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Date of creation: 1989
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:359

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Related research

Keywords: Japan ; Germany ; Econometric models;

References

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  1. Ghysels, E & Hall, A., 1988. "A Test For Structural Stability Of Euler Conditions Parameters Estimated Via The Generalized Methods Of Moments Estimators," Cahiers de recherche 8837, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
  2. Thomas J. Sargent, 1978. "Estimation of dynamic labor demand schedules under rational expectations," Staff Report 27, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Andrews, Donald W K & Fair, Ray C, 1988. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 615-39, October.
  4. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Finite lifetimes and the effects of budget deficits on national saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 369-391, September.
  5. Fair, Ray C, 1987. "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 473-80, August.
  6. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  9. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  10. John B. Taylor, 1984. "Improvements in Macroeconomic Stability: The Role of Wages and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  12. Robert E. Hall, 1981. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Dooley, Michael & Isard, Peter, 1982. "A portfolio-balance rational-expectations model of the dollar-mark exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 257-276, May.
  14. Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-89, August.
  15. Goldfeld, Stephen M & Sichel, Daniel E, 1987. "Money Demand: The Effects of Inflation and Alternative Adjustment Mechanisms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 511-15, August.
  16. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Joseph E. Gagnon & Ralph W. Tryon, 1992. "Stochastic behavior of the world economy under alternative policy regimes," International Finance Discussion Papers 428, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Andrew T. Levin & John H. Rogers & Ralph W. Tryon, 1997. "A guide to FRB/Global," International Finance Discussion Papers 588, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Jaime Marquez, 2000. "The Puzzling Income Elasticity of US Imports," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1128, Econometric Society.
  4. Catherine L. Mann, 1990. "Prospects for sustained improvement in U.S. external balance: structural change versus policy change," International Finance Discussion Papers 373, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Masson, Paul R. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1996. "German unification: What have we learned from multi-country models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 467-497, October.
  6. Lewis S. Alexander & Joseph E. Gagnon, 1990. "The global economic implications of German unification," International Finance Discussion Papers 379, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Jon Faust & Ralph Tryon, 1995. "Block distributed methods for solving multi-country econometric models," International Finance Discussion Papers 516, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Eric M. Leeper, 1990. "The dynamics of interest rate and tax rules in a stochastic model," International Finance Discussion Papers 375, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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