IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2008-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The jumbo-conforming spread: a semiparametric approach

Author

Abstract

This paper estimates the jumbo-conforming spread using data from the Federal Housing Finance Board?s Monthly Interest Rate Survey from January 1993 to June 2007. Importantly, this paper augments the typical parametric approach by adding state-level foreclosure laws and ZIP-level demographic variables to the model, estimating the effects of loan size and loan-to-value ratio on mortgage rates nonparametrically, and including geographic location as a control for some potentially unobserved borrower and market characteristics that might vary over geography, such as credit scores, debt-to-income ratios, and house price volatility. A partial locallinear regression approach is used to estimate the jumbo-conforming spread, on the premise that loans similar to each other in terms of loan size, loan-to-value ratio, or geographic location might also be similar in other, unobservable borrower and market characteristics. I find estimates of the jumbo-conforming spread of 13 to 24 basis points?50 to 24 percent smaller since about 1996, when credit scores became widely used in mortgage underwriting, than estimates from a commonly used parametric model. I therefore attribute the difference in estimates to credit quality and other unobserved characteristics, among other potential explanations, making these controls an important issue in estimating the jumbo-conforming spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Shane M. Sherlund, 2008. "The jumbo-conforming spread: a semiparametric approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2008/200801/200801abs.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2008/200801/200801pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Naranjo, Andy & Toevs, Alden, 2002. "The Effects of Purchases of Mortgages and Securitization By Government Sponsored Enterprises on Mortgage Yield Spreads and Volatility," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2-3), pages 173-195, Sept.-Dec.
    2. Karen M. Pence, 2006. "Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 177-182, February.
    3. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    4. Brent W. Ambrose & Michael LaCour‐Little & Anthony B. Sanders, 2004. "The Effect of Conforming Loan Status on Mortgage Yield Spreads: A Loan Level Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 541-569, December.
    5. Gillian Burgess & Wayne Passmore & Shane M. Sherlund, 2005. "The effect of housing government-sponsored enterprises on mortgage rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Hendershott, Patric H & Shilling, James D, 1989. "The Impact of the Agencies on Conventional Fixed-Rate Mortgage Yields," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 101-115, June.
    7. Wayne Passmore & Shane M. Sherlund & Gillian Burgess, 2005. "The Effect of Housing Government-Sponsored Enterprises on Mortgage Rates," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 427-463, September.
    8. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-954, July.
    9. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643.
    10. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard & Thibodeau, Thomas, 2001. "A New Spin on the Jumbo/Conforming Loan Rate Differential," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 309-335, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olsen, Edgar O. & Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2015. "US Housing Policy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 887-986, Elsevier.
    2. Alex Kaufman, 2014. "The Influence of Fannie and Freddie on Mortgage Loan Terms," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 472-496, June.
    3. Serafin J. Grundl & You Suk Kim, 2019. "The Marginal Effect of Government Mortgage Guarantees on Homeownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Grundl, Serafin & Kim, You Suk, 2021. "The marginal effect of government mortgage guarantees on homeownership," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 75-89.
    5. Bo Li, 2024. "Testing Business Cycle Theories: Evidence from the Great Recession," Papers 2403.04104, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John M. Quigley, 2006. "Federal credit and insurance programs: housing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Jul), pages 281-310.
    2. Xudong An & Raphael Bostic, 2008. "GSE Activity, FHA Feedback, and Implications for the Efficacy of the Affordable Housing Goals," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 207-231, February.
    3. Andreas Lehnert & Wayne Passmore & Shane Sherlund, 2008. "GSEs, Mortgage Rates, and Secondary Market Activities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 343-363, April.
    4. Alex Kaufman, 2014. "The Influence of Fannie and Freddie on Mortgage Loan Terms," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 472-496, June.
    5. Wayne Passmore, 2003. "The GSE implicit subsidy and value of government ambiguity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Xudong An & Raphael W. Bostic, 2006. "Have the Affordable Housing Goals been a Shield against Subprime? Regulatory Incentives and the Extension of Mortgage Credit," Working Paper 8572, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    7. Olsen, Edgar O. & Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2015. "US Housing Policy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 887-986, Elsevier.
    8. Zhao, Yunhui, 2016. "Got Hurt for What You Paid? Revisiting Government Subsidy in the U.S. Mortgage Market," MPRA Paper 81083, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2017.
    9. Anil Kumar, 2018. "Do Restrictions on Home Equity Extraction Contribute to Lower Mortgage Defaults? Evidence from a Policy Discontinuity at the Texas Border," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 268-297, February.
    10. Ambrose, Brent W. & Buttimer, Richard Jr., 2005. "GSE impact on rural mortgage markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 417-443, July.
    11. Michael Davies & Jacob Gyntelberg & Eric Chan, 2007. "Housing finance agencies in Asia," BIS Working Papers 241, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    13. Elena Loutskina & Philip E. Strahan, 2009. "Securitization and the Declining Impact of Bank Finance on Loan Supply: Evidence from Mortgage Originations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 861-889, April.
    14. James Vickery & Joshua Wright, 2013. "TBA trading and liquidity in the agency MBS market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(May), pages 1-18.
    15. W. Scott Frame & Diana Hancock & Wayne Passmore, 2012. "Federal Home Loan Bank Advances and Commercial Bank Portfolio Composition," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 661-684, June.
    16. Leandro De Magalhães & Lucas Ferrero, 2012. "Separation of Powers and the Size of Government in the U.S. States," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 12/285, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    17. W. Scott Frame, 2009. "The 2008 federal intervention to stabilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    18. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2007. "Charter Value, Risk‐Taking Incentives, and Emerging Competition for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 83-103, February.
    19. Lynn M. Fisher & Mike Fratantoni & Stephen D. Oliner & Tobias J. Peter, 2021. "Jumbo rates below conforming rates: When did this happen and why?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 461-489, September.
    20. Dwight Jaffee & John M. Quigley, 2012. "The Future of the Government-Sponsored Enterprises: The Role for Government in the U.S. Mortgage Market," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 361-417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgages;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.