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The aggregate change in shares and the level of stock prices

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Author Info
William R. Nelson
Abstract

The average change in shares of equity is negatively correlated with estimates of the equity premium calculated using the dividend-ratio model of Campbell and Shiller, as well as with a variant of the model written in terms of the earnings-price ratio. This correlation is consistent with corporations issuing equity when it is a relatively inexpensive source of finance and repurchasing equity when it is a relatively good investment. However, when the retirement of shares resulting from mergers are included, the average change in shares is no longer significantly correlated with the equity premium.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-08.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-08

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Related research
Keywords: Stock - Prices ; Rate of return;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. William R. Nelson, 1999. "Evidence of excess returns on firms that issue or repurchase equity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 455-77, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anne Vila Wetherilt & Simon Wells, . "Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 244, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Steven A. Sharpe, 2002. "How does the market interpret analysts' long-term growth forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Steven A. Sharpe, 1999. "Stock prices, expected returns, and inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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