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The aggregate change in shares and the level of stock prices

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  • William R. Nelson

Abstract

The average change in shares of equity is negatively correlated with estimates of the equity premium calculated using the dividend-ratio model of Campbell and Shiller, as well as with a variant of the model written in terms of the earnings-price ratio. This correlation is consistent with corporations issuing equity when it is a relatively inexpensive source of finance and repurchasing equity when it is a relatively good investment. However, when the retirement of shares resulting from mergers are included, the average change in shares is no longer significantly correlated with the equity premium.

Suggested Citation

  • William R. Nelson, 1999. "The aggregate change in shares and the level of stock prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 455-477.
    4. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. "The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    5. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
    6. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. William R. Nelson, 1999. "Evidence of excess returns on firms that issue or repurchase equity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2000. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2219-2257, October.
    2. Gabe J. de Bondt & Tuomas A. Peltonen & Daniel Santabárbara, 2010. "Booms and busts in China's stock market: Estimates based on fundamentals," Working Papers 1032, Banco de España.
    3. Steven A. Sharpe, 1999. "Stock prices, expected returns, and inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Steven A. Sharpe, 2002. "How does the market interpret analysts' long-term growth forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Anne Vila Wetherilt & Simon Wells, 2004. "Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 244, Bank of England.
    6. Benninga, Simon & Helmantel, Mark & Sarig, Oded, 2005. "The timing of initial public offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 115-132, January.
    7. Chen, Hung-Ling & Chow, Edward H., 2011. "The impact of investor base on the costs of capital for IPOs," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 177-190, July.

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    Keywords

    Stock - Prices; Rate of return;

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