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The aggregate change in shares and the level of stock prices

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  • William R. Nelson
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    Abstract

    The average change in shares of equity is negatively correlated with estimates of the equity premium calculated using the dividend-ratio model of Campbell and Shiller, as well as with a variant of the model written in terms of the earnings-price ratio. This correlation is consistent with corporations issuing equity when it is a relatively inexpensive source of finance and repurchasing equity when it is a relatively good investment. However, when the retirement of shares resulting from mergers are included, the average change in shares is no longer significantly correlated with the equity premium.

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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1999/199908/199908abs.html
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1999/199908/199908pap.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-08.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-08

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    Keywords: Stock - Prices ; Rate of return;

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    References

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    1. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    4. William R. Nelson, 1999. "Evidence of excess returns on firms that issue or repurchase equity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & David H. Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1989. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," NBER Working Papers 3154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    Cited by:
    1. Steven A. Sharpe, 2002. "How does the market interpret analysts' long-term growth forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 1999. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm124, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2009.
    3. Steven A. Sharpe, 1999. "Stock prices, expected returns, and inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Anne Vila Wetherilt & Simon Wells, 2004. "Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 244, Bank of England.
    5. Chen, Hung-Ling & Chow, Edward H., 2011. "The impact of investor base on the costs of capital for IPOs," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 177-190, July.
    6. Benninga, Simon & Helmantel, Mark & Sarig, Oded, 2005. "The timing of initial public offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 115-132, January.

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