Empirical estimates of changing inflation dynamics
AbstractThis paper provides an array of empirical evidence bearing on potentially important changes in the dynamics of U.S. inflation. We examine the overall performance of Phillips curves relative to some well-known benchmarks, the efficiency with which the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts of inflation use real activity information, and shifts in the key determinants of the reduced-form "triangle model" of inflation. We develop a structural model-based interpretation of observed reduced-form shifts and conduct a reduced-form assessment of the relationship between core and headline measures of inflation, centering on the persistent "pass-through" of relative price changes into core and headline inflation measures, and a parallel exercise that examines the pass-through of key relative price changes into wage and compensation measures.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 09-4.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-07-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-07-28 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-07-28 (Monetary Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose, 2011.
"Indeterminacy and forecastability,"
Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper
91, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2011. "How useful are estimated DSGE model forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Laurence M. Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011.
"Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession,"
NBER Working Papers
17044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Economics Working Paper Archive 580, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Sandeep Mazumder & Laurence M. Ball, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," IMF Working Papers 11/121, International Monetary Fund.
- Gbaguidi S. DAVID, 2011.
"Expectations Impact On The Effectiveness Of The Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off,"
Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields,
ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(2), pages 141-182, December.
- Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Expectations Impact on the Effectiveness of the Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," MPRA Paper 35482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kapur, Muneesh, 2013. "Revisiting the Phillips curve for India and inflation forecasting," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 17-27.
- Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2010.
"How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 209-259.
- Edge, Rochelle M & Gürkaynak, Refet S., 2010. "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.